North Texas and Tulane meet for the American Championship, in what is expected to be a high-scoring shoot-out! With the total currently sitting at 67.5 and last year’s game ending with 82 points, perhaps 67.5 is too low!
While the spread and rankings suggest a tight matchup, the data points toward one side having the edge where it matters. Let's dive into the numbers!
North Texas enters the title game with one of the most dangerous offenses in the country. They rank 1st nationally, averaging 46.8 points per game, ranking 2nd in passing yards, and sitting top 2 in yards per play at 7.3. They also protect the QB, ranking top 10 in QB hits, tied 13th in sacks allowed.
Their ability to sustain drives and finish possessions is elite, ranking 4th with a 94% red-zone scoring rate and top 20 in 3rd down conversion rates. Looking at Sagarin, North Texas is power rated almost 20 slots higher, with the one downgrade, a worse SOS, 104 to 75, in favor of Tulane.
Against common opponents, North Texas is 5–0, while Tulane is 4–1 in those same matchups, but their lone loss was not close, a blowout defeat to UTSA, a team that runs a style similar to North Texas. An up-tempo, high-scoring team.
Even with a tougher strength of schedule for Tulane, their average scoring margin this season has been +20 compared to +5.6 for Tulane. Over their last three games, North Texas' average margin of victory is up to almost +30, while Tulane’s sits at +20.
Another bright spot for North Texas in this matchup is that they win the turnover and penalty battle. North Texas ranks 4th nationally in turnover margin per game, 23rd in giveaways per game, 7th in takeaways per game, and 6th in interception thrown percentage.
North Texas protects the ball while also having the ability to create turnovers on defense. Tulane ranks 50th in giveaways per game, over 1.2 per game. North Texas also ranks 21st in penalty yards per game, under 50, while Tulane ranks 128th at over 65 yards per game, two key categories that could swing a tight 2.5 spread!
Final Pick: North Texas ML (-127, ProphetX)
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