Happy Tuesday, sports betting family. We went 1-1 last week with our college football best bets and are looking to finish the year on a high note. It's hard to believe that we're already at Championship Weekend.
I've found some nice edges on Saturday afternoon's Georgia vs Alabama game, which kicks off at 4:00 Eastern Time on ABC. I've broken down all aspects of this matchup and came up with an early best bet to hopefully help build your bankroll.
Good luck and enjoy the action! This should be a sensational battle in the Peach State. Let's get into it!
Online sportsbooks opened this line at Georgia -1.5 on the look-ahead line on Sunday afternoon. Surprisingly, the current number is now Georgia -2.5 at most shops. It looks like the sharp money is thinking that the Bulldogs will get some sweet revenge against the Crimson Tide.
As for the game total, there's been no major moves to report on so far. The line opened at 47.5, and almost every sportsbook in the US is still dealing that same number. With the strength of these two elite defenses, I wouldn't be surprised if some Under money showed up in the market before kickoff.
The Bulldogs' only loss of the year was to this same Crimson Tide team back in September by three points. Alabama outgained Georgia 397 to 357 in that contest and had 8 more first downs. The Tide also dominated the time of possession battle, 35 minutes to 25 minutes.
That loss seemed to refocus Kirby Smart's bunch, as they've rattled off 8 straight wins since then. Gunnar Stockton has really come into his own as an SEC QB, as he's thrown for 2535 yards and is responsible for 28 total TDs. Nate Frazier has run for 809 yards and does a good job of taking pressure off of Stockton.
Georgia's defense is still very good, as they rank 13th in yards per rush allowed and 31st in yards per pass allowed. CJ Allen leads the squad in tackles with 80, and Ellis Robinson IV leads the way with 4 INTs. The main problem with this unit, however, has been a severe lack of a pass rush.
A high percentage of the Bama faithful was ready to fire Kalen DeBoer after a first-week loss to Florida State. The Crimson Tide responded by winning 10 of its next 11 games to earn a trip to the SEC Title Game.
QB Ty Simpson has had a fantastic season, although he has regressed a bit in recent weeks. The 6'2" junior has thrown for 3056 yards and is responsible for 27 total TDs in his first year as a starter. Those are some pretty impressive numbers considering that the O-line has struggled to pass protect for most of the year.
Bama's defense has done a masterful job of creating turnovers, mainly thanks to Bray Hubbard, who leads the team with 4 interceptions and 3 forced fumbles. The Tide ranks 13th in the nation in turnover margin, and they'll need to win that battle once again here in Atlanta.
UGA at ALA: 4:00 ET on Saturday, December 6
We've made a small fortune fading Kirby Smart's bunch in the first half for the better part of two seasons. There's no reason to change that approach now, especially since Georgia is just 4-10 ATS in the 1st half over their last 14 outings. Smart approaches every big game like a heavyweight fight, where he prefers to feel out his opponent before throwing haymakers after halftime.
In case you've been hiding under a rock, Alabama has owned Georgia for a long time now. The Crimson Tide is 10-1 straight up against the Dawgs since 2008, and I trust Kalen DeBoer and Ryan Grubb to put together a nice offensive game plan to start this SEC Title Game.
It's hard to beat a good team twice in the same year, but Bama is more than capable of doing so. However, I like the first half a bit more than the full game just because of Smart's uncanny ability to make very good halftime adjustments. Let's play the Tide in the 1st half! Good luck, my friends!
Trend I Love: Alabama is 9-4 ATS in the 1st Half their last 13 outings!
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