Thanksgiving Football is back with an intriguing matchup with a possible twist of revenge factor. Thursday night brings us an AAC matchup between Navy and Memphis, and this one shapes up far more evenly than the spread may suggest. These teams met last season, and Navy controlled that game on the ground from start to finish, winning by 12 at home.
While both rosters have changed since then, one thing has stayed true: Blake Horvath, quarterback for Navy. Last season in this matchup, he ran all over this defense, 12 carries for 211 yards, 17.6 yards per carry, and 4 touchdowns, adding two more touchdowns through the air. Horvath continues to be a wrecking ball on the ground. Over his last eight games, he has carried the ball at least 17 times, surpassing 20+ carries in four of those games. He is coming off a game of 21 carries and 60 yards. Before that, he reeled off seven straight 100+ rushing yard games, four going over 130+ yards.
Memphis certainly looks improved this year against the rush, ranking 40th in the nation, allowing 127 yards per game. Navy ranks #2 in the country in yards per rush at 6.1, while Memphis ranks #42, allowing just under 4 yards per carry. To add to that, Navy’s rushing offense ranks #3 in rush play % at over 75%, #5 in rush attempts per game, and #1 in rushing yards per game at 209, while Memphis ranks inside the top 45 in those four categories defensively against the rush. Something must give here.
Against five common opponents this season, Navy is 5-0, while Memphis is 4-1 and coming into this game on a two-game skid, losing momentum. Since the 2017 season, Navy is 5-2 in the game leading up to their rivalry matchup vs Army. I would not classify this as a look-ahead spot, as Navy dominated Army last season and is again the better team this season; no reason to look ahead. This is a big focus spot in itself.
Navy sits tied atop the ACC at 6-1 alongside North Texas and Tulane, and it could get interesting if one of those teams slips up in the final week. On offense, Memphis has explosive playmakers and should be able to put up points in this matchup. They have a more balanced attack on offense, ranking 27th in rushing yards per game and 58th in passing yards per game.
I expect Memphis' passing game to attack Navy’s secondary, which is its weakness. Navy ranks 126th against the pass. If Navy’s ground game can keep possession and keep the ball away from Memphis, they should be able to keep this within 7 points. Navy also ranks #1 in the country in yards per pass at 10.1, and if they can find some explosive plays, they can be a live dog to win this outright!
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