Heading into the season, Friday’s winner of the ACC matchup between the Florida State Seminoles (5-5, 2-5 ACC) and the North Carolina State Wolfpack (5-5, 2-4 ACC) looked like a potential elimination game for the conference championship contest. Instead, both teams enter this contest needing a win just to become bowl eligible.
Florida State looked like a potential playoff contender, starting the season 3-0 with a huge home win over Alabama. Since a Friday-night upset by Virginia, the Seminoles’ only wins have been against Wake Forest and Virginia Tech.
Similarly, NC State jumped out to a 3-0 start, including a 35-31 victory over Virginia in a non-conference matchup. Since then, the Wolfpack’s signature win was a surprising upset over Georgia Tech early this month.
With bowl aspirations in the balance, will the Seminoles or Wolfpack rise to the occasion and win Friday’s conference matchup? We’ll cover that and provide bettors with our top three player props for this ACC contest.
Senior quarterback Tommy Castellanos has enjoyed a strong season for the Seminoles in 2025. The 5-foot-11 signal-caller has thrown for 2,317 yards, 12 touchdowns, and six interceptions in his final collegiate season.
What’s more impressive is his ability to run the football. He’s averaged a mere 3.8 rushing yards per attempt, but Castellanos has notched 404 yards on the ground and eight more scores for Florida State thus far.
The Wolfpack have struggled against running quarterbacks. Georgia Tech’s Haynes King notched over 100 rushing yards and two touchdowns in their matchup earlier this month. That’s why individuals should expect Castellanos to have a big Friday night on the ground, covering his rushing prop bet total.
Sophomore C.J. Bailey has had a strong season for the Wolfpack in 2025. The 6-foot-6 quarterback has completed nearly 70 percent of his passes for 2,531 yards, 19 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. He’s posted four 300-yard performances thus far, looking for another against the Seminoles on Friday night.
Bettors shouldn’t expect that to happen, however. Florida State’s defensive issues stem from a weakened run defense. In last week’s victory over Virginia Tech, the Seminoles yielded over 238 rushing yards to the Hokies. Expect NC State to run the football on Friday, keeping Bailey from covering his passing yards prop total.
Castellanos’ top target is junior wide receiver Duce Robinson. The 6-foot-6 athlete has caught 49 passes for 947 yards and five touchdowns this season, nearly doubling every teammate’s production in 2025. He accounts for more than 40 percent of Castellanos’ total passing yards thus far.
The Wolfpack haven’t offered much resistance to opponents’ passing attacks this season. Over their past three outings, opponents have averaged nearly 400 passing yards against NC State. That’s why bettors should expect Robinson to have a big outing on Friday night, covering his receiving prop total.
Bettors recognize that the Seminoles have the better roster heading into Friday’s matchup. Florida State has two winnable games left on its schedule, and an 8-5 mark is well within its reach.
The reason bettors shouldn’t take Florida State to cover the spread is simple: the Seminoles haven’t won outside of Doak Campbell Stadium this year. Take NC State to at least cover this 5.5-point spread as the underdog Wolfpack surprise their ACC counterparts on Friday night.