College Football is slowly coming to an end! With 1 regular season game left on everyone’s schedule, this week could make or break some teams' bowl opportunities. Cashing two of our three article plays last week, we will look to keep things rolling! We have targeted two top 25 games, and another tough Big 12 matchup breakdown!
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I like TCU in this matchup, and perhaps I have a soft spot for Josh Hoover and Sonny Dykes, but the Horned Frogs come in with multiple edges, both statistically and situationally.
TCU has faced a much tougher schedule this season, ranking 38th in Strength of Schedule compared to Houston at 71st, and their Strength of Victory sits at 25th, while Houston’s is 52nd. That means TCU’s wins have likely come against stronger competition and perhaps the more battle-tested.
This is also a major payback spot, which, if you follow me, you know I like. Last year, Houston went into Fort Worth and beat TCU 30–19, a game defined by TCU’s four turnovers, including two interceptions and a lost fumble from Josh Hoover. I believe that puts TCU in a highly focused spot, especially coming off a blowout loss
TCU’s offense gives them a real chance vs this 8-2 Cougar squad. They’re averaging over 410 yards per game, with a strong passing attack around 290 yards per game and another 120+ yards on the ground. They score just over 30 points per game, giving them the firepower to stay competitive and cover late. Defensively, TCU allows around 374 yards and 26.5 points per game, which isn’t elite, but it’s good enough to compete, especially in a brewing rivalry.
Houston’s defense is slightly better statistically, but much of that comes against a weaker slate. Houston is coming off a bye, which can sometimes create a slow start, while TCU is fighting to stop a losing streak while spoiling Houston’s push for a Big 12 title spot. Perhaps TCU is just mailing it in after a loss, and then a blowout loss, but I know they have more heart, and this line stinks!
Kansas has owned Iowa State and Rocco Becht in recent seasons, winning three straight years. It’s now or never for this squad to turn the tide back in their favor!
Defensively, the Cyclones are giving up around 372 yards per game and roughly 5.7 yards per play, and they’ve proven they can tighten up in key matchups. They’ve held Iowa, TCU, and Arizona to modest scoring outputs in their wins, showing they can control games, especially at home. They also rank 42nd nationally in defensive first downs allowed, giving up just 18 per game.
They’re a strong scoring-defense unit as well, ranking 38th in the nation by allowing only 21 points per game. If they can continue that level of control, it will force Kansas to be more efficient on offense.
Turnovers are another key in this matchup; Iowa State forces 1.4 turnovers per game, ranking 48th nationally. That’s important against Kansas QB Jalon Daniels, who has been excellent this year with 21 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions. Iowa State doesn’t need to shut him down completely but finding one or even two turnovers could swing the momentum for the home team.
On offense, Iowa State averages almost 400 total yards per game, with about 230 passing and 165 rushing. That balance makes them flexible and a tough matchup to game plan against. With the rushing combo of Carson Hansen and Abu Sama, the Cyclones can control tempo, shorten the game, and keep Kansas’ offense on the sideline.
Iowa State’s Strength of Victory ranks 5th nationally, while Kansas sits at 81st, meaning Iowa State’s wins have come against much stronger competition. They’re also 1–1 vs Top 30 teams, while Kansas is 0–2, showing Iowa State has performed better when the level of competition amps up.
Cincinnati has covered +1.5 in the first half in 8 of their last 9 games, including all 6 at home, while BYU has lost the first half in four straight road games and 4 of 5 on the road this season. Will these trends continue? We think so for a few reasons below.
Cincinnati’s first-half power rating ranks 9th nationally, but it drops to 66th in the second half, suggesting they start stronger than they finish. BYU, on the other hand, has a strong second-half power rating (10th nationally), indicating they tend to improve after making 2nd half adjustments.
From an offensive standpoint, both teams average about 34 points per game, but Cincinnati’s efficiency stands out. They rank 7th nationally in red zone efficiency, 4th in yards per play at 7.1, 8th in fewest turnovers per game, 1st in fewest sacks allowed, fewest QB hits, and 4th in fewest tackles for loss.
They also rank 22nd nationally in rushing, averaging almost 200 yards per game, which gives them the ability to slow the game down and limit BYU’s possessions. BYU’s run defense has allowed 130 yards per game on the ground, so Cincinnati can exploit this to maintain tempo.
Situationally, BYU is coming off a huge blowout over TCU (44–13), traveling across the country, which could lead to a slower start. Cincinnati, at home and looking to bounce back from two straight losses, has high motivation to set the tone early. With their ability to control tempo through the run game, they can keep this one tied going into the break, or be winning outright!