Happy Tuesday, sports betting family. We went 5-1 last week with our college football best bets and are looking to finish the year on a high note. It's hard to believe that we only have two weeks left in the regular season.
I've found some nice edges on Saturday afternoon's Arkansas vs Texas game, which kicks off at 3:30 Eastern Time on ABC. I've broken down all aspects of this matchup and came up with an early best bet to hopefully help build your bankroll.
Good luck and enjoy the action! This should be a sensational battle in the Lone Star State. Let's get into it!
Online sportsbooks opened this line at Texas -11.5 on the look-ahead line back in the summer months. Surprisingly, the current number is now Texas -10 at most shops. It looks like the sharp money is thinking that Arkansas will give Texas a ball game in this spot.
As for the game total, there's been a huge hunger for the Over so far. The line opened at 55.5, and almost every sportsbook in the US is now dealing 57.5. There aren't any true outliers in the market as of Tuesday morning, but that should change as we get closer to kickoff.
You just have to feel a little bit sorry for this Razorbacks squad. They're just 2-8 this season and 0-6 in SEC play. However, this team has lost six one-score games and has been more than a bit unlucky this season.
Arkansas has no trouble scoring points, as they average 32.1 points per game in FBS play. That's good enough for 24th in the nation, and that means they are capable of staying with any team. The Hogs rank 4th in yards per rush, averaging a whopping 6 yards per pop.
The main bugaboo of this team has been their defense. Arkansas has been awful in all of the main metrics. They're 119th in yards per play allowed, 108th in yards per rush allowed, and 119th in yards per pass allowed. One of the few things this unit does well is rush the passer, so Arch Manning could have his hands full at times.
Texas suffered a 35-10 beatdown at the hands of Georgia last week, and you have to wonder if that was the dream-crushing loss that could cause them to show up more than a bit unfocused. The Longhorns are 7-3 but got extremely lucky in OT wins against Kentucky and Mississippi State.
QB Arch Manning took a lot of criticism early this season, but he's really starting to develop into one of the top passers in the nation. He's thrown for 2374 yards and 19 TDs and should definitely be able to add to those totals in this matchup against Arkansas.
Texas's defense is pretty tough. They rank 3rd in yards per rush allowed and 12th in yards per play allowed. However, they can be burned over the top from time to time, so keep an eye on that.
ARK at TX: 3:30 ET on Saturday, November 22
Yes, I know the Hogs are 2-8, but they've shown a lot of fight since Sam Pittman was fired. Arkansas has one of the best offenses in the country, and it's gotten even better since Mr. Neck Brace, Bobby Petrino, took over. The Razorbacks rank 7th in the country in yards per play, and QB Taylen Green is one of the best pure playmakers in college football.
I feel really good about the Hogs hanging with Texas for at least a half. The Horns are coming off a brutal loss between the hedges at Georgia, and they've got archrival Texas A&M on deck next week. I could see Texas sleepwalking early on against a 2-8 Arky team.
Arkansas has covered the 1H Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.50 Units / 44% ROI). That's a trend I can get behind with confidence. The Hogs' defense usually hangs tough early before fading late. Let's take them to cover this number in the first half. Best of luck, my friends!