Welcome to the return of midweek MACtion, sports betting family. As it usually does, the year is going by way too fast, but there are lots of fun games left out there for us. It's hard to believe that we only have a month left in the regular season.
I've found some nice edges on Wednesday night's Northern Illinois vs Toledo game, which kicks off at 7:00 Eastern Time on ESPN2. I've broken down all aspects of this matchup and came up with an early best bet to hopefully help build your bankroll.
Good luck and enjoy the action! This should be a massive MAC game in the great state of Ohio. Let's get into it!
Online sportsbooks opened this line at Toledo -13.5 on the look-ahead line a few days ago. Surprisingly, the current number is now Toledo -14.5, which is kind of a shock since NIU is coming off
As for the game total, there's been a small appetite for the Over so far. The line opened at 42.5, and a couple of sites are now offering 43.5. There are no outliers in the market to report as of Wednesday morning.
The Huskies have struggled on offense for most of the year, but they busted out in a big way two weeks ago against Ball State. NIU racked up 305 yards on the ground and averaged 5.4 yards per rush. Telly Johnson is the main running back on this squad, as he's run for 581 yards and 3 TDs.
Northern Illinois doesn't have anything that even remotely resembles a passing game, as they rank just 135th in yards per pass. Because of that, it wouldn't surprise me if Toledo sends some blitzes from the safety position a few times in this matchup.
NIU's defense is the strength of this team, especially its secondary. The Huskies rank a solid 33rd in yards per pass allowed. This means that Toledo will have to be content with some short and medium-length passes tonight at home.
The Rockets come into this game with a 4-4 record, but I still think they're the most talented team in the MAC. The offense has had its fair share of struggles in the red zone, but they have some playmakers at the skill positions. Toledo's main weapon is Junior Vandeross, who has hauled in 8 TD receptions so far.
RB Chip Trayanum has missed the last couple of games with an injury, but he could make it back tonight for the Rockets. Even if he can't go, backup Kenji Christian fills the void quite nicely (5.2 yards per carry, 2 TDs). NIU ranks outside the Top 100 in rushing yards allowed per game, so look for Toledo to try and exploit that tonight.
NIU vs Toledo - 7 PM ET (11/5)
Note: This is a 0.75-unit play for me!
We're going to play this one a little smaller than normal because MACtion is so unpredictable. That being said, I like Toledo to come out firing on all cylinders in this spot. The Rockets are 6-1 ATS in the first half in their last 7 home games. On the flip side, NIU is just 1-3 ATS in the first half in MAC games this year.
Toledo is a respectable squad in the MAC, and they're typically tough to beat at home in the Glass Bowl. Senior QB Tucker Gleason has accounted for 16 total TDs this season, and he played pretty well against larger schools like Kentucky and Washington State. He should have plenty of time to throw tonight since NIU ranks just 90th in sack rate.
Northern Illinois has been riding the struggle bus all season long, and I don't see them doing much in this game. They looked better against Ball State their last time out, but this Toledo defense is a whole different beast. The Rockets rank 7th in yards per play allowed, and they have the D-line to slow down the triple-option attack. Let's lay the points with Toledo in the first half. Best of luck, fellow sports investors.