We’re past the halfway point of the 2025 college football season, and teams are starting to show who they really are. With Indiana pulling off a shocking upset over #3 Oregon, it ruined our chance for a sweep as we went 2-1 with week 7’s article.
This week I am giving the three usual Saturday plays, with a bonus Friday look! Week 8 offers several conference matchups worth digging into, and I believe I found some nice value this week! Our members went 10-3 overall last week in college football. Let’s have another great week!
Friday night’s matchup between North Carolina and Cal sets up perfectly for an under. Against competent competition, UNC has scored 14, 9, and 10 points. Now they travel across the country, and even after a bye, I don’t think this offense will travel.
UNC is rated #102 offense by CFBDepth.com and dropping every week. They face Cal, who ranks #57, allowing just 22.5 points and staying under 49.5 in four of their six games this season. UNC brings an offense that is very slow-paced and balanced between the run and pass, while Cal wants to get out and pass.
UNC’s defense, on the other hand, allows 25.8 points per game and has stayed under this line in four of its five games, four straight. Cal should look to pass early, but if they get the lead or find success rushing, this could turn into a back-and-forth game on the ground, killing the clock, and a chance at points. Both teams coming off byes, give me an under with defenses ready.
Duke continues to be one of the more quietly reliable teams in the ACC. Now 3-0 in the ACC in their 2nd season under Manny Diaz, they have a chance for a big statement win here. With what our friend and fearless editor Mike Noblin likes to call a “McSlam”, we have an unranked Duke favored by the books over an undefeated and ranked Georgia Tech team.
While it also may not look like it at the onset, Georgia Tech has a revenge game on the slate next week. They lost at Syracuse last season, 31-28; that game must be circled, while Georgia Tech beat Duke by 10 last season and comes into this game fat and happy with a 15-point win over Virginia Tech. Duke gets a bye next week, and I expect them to be completely locked in this spot.
According to CFBDepth.com, Duke has the better offense, ranked 15th to Georgia Tech's 25, while also having Duke ranked as the better team overall, 28 to 35. Duke can slow this game down with their rushing attack, and I expect them to lean more towards the run in this game to keep the ball out of Georgia Tech’s hands.
Darian Mensah for Duke has done a terrific job protecting the ball with 15 touchdowns to 2 interceptions. With the duo of Barkate on the outside and Brown on the inside, Mensah has playmakers to keep the sticks moving. Take Duke!
TCU enters Week 8 with one of the more underrated resumes in the Big 12. My main reason for this pick is that they are coming off a loss, now at home, with the better quarterback. Their offense has been potent, averaging over 400 total yards per game, and they’ve shown balance in both their passing and rushing attack.
TCU is 5th in the nation in passing yards per game, 30th in yards per play, and better yet, they have the better defense in this game to help their offense gain some distance. Baylor comes in 4-2 with losses to Auburn and Arizona State but has won both road games at SMU and Oklahoma State.
TCU is the best team they have faced on their schedule, according to CFBdepth.com, and TCU has played the tougher strength of schedule, 77 to 121, and better strength of victory, 26 to 102. Coming off a loss at a very bad Kansas State, where they allowed 41 points, I fully expect Sonny Dikes to have his team and his defense's attention.
Arizona State, coming in 4-2, 2-1 in conference, is in need of this game, and I believe they will get their quarterback, Sam Leavitt, back just in time for this massive game. Getting a generous -120 price for 9 points, even though Texas Tech has covered this in all six games so far, seems too good to pass up.
Texas Tech could have its own troubles if Behren Morton does not start, and as of writing this, it looks like he may miss this game. Even if he plays, the Red Raiders have not faced much adversity this season, and I believe the desert heat and Arizona State's defense could slow down that offense.
As we have seen in previous years, Arizona State does offer some home-field advantages, and we get Arizona State with the much tougher strength of schedule, 13th to 90th. They do have 1 common opponent, but I throw that out with Leavitt not playing. Arizona State has covered this line in five of its six games this season and eighteen of its last twenty games, good for 90% hit rate.