Welcome to Week 8 of the college football season, sports betting friends. As it usually does, the year is going by way too quickly, but there are lots of fun games left out there for us.
I've found some nice edges on Saturday night's Texas vs Kentucky game, which kicks off at 7:00 PM Eastern Time on ESPN. I've broken down all aspects of this matchup and came up with an early best bet to hopefully help build your bankroll.
Good luck and enjoy the action! This should be an exciting SEC showdown in Lexington. Let's get into it!
Online sportsbooks opened this line at Texas -13.5 on the look-ahead line back in the summer months. Surprisingly, the current number is now Texas -12.5, which is kind of a shock since Texas pulled off a nice win against Oklahoma last weekend. It looks like sharp money is backing the hometown Wildcats in this one, at least so far.
As for the game total, there's been a huge move toward the Under so far. The line opened at 44.5, and almost every sportsbook in the US is now dealing 42.5. Both of these teams have had some red zone woes, so the move toward the Under makes a lot of sense.
Everyone was worried Texas would lose to Oklahoma when John Mateer surprisingly wound up playing just a few weeks after surgery on his hand. However, the Longhorns' defense coaxed Matter into three costly interceptions on their way to a 23-6 victory over Boomer Sooner.
Arch Manning hasn't lived up to the hype so far, but a lot of folks are neglecting the fact that this kid is still somewhat new to college football. He should improve a bit more as the season rolls on. Even with all of the haters out there, Manning has still accounted for 17 total TDs this season.
Texas's defense proved last week why it's one of the best in the land. The Horns rank 2nd in points allowed and 5th in yards per rush allowed. Colin Simmons leads the way with 4 sacks for this stout unit, and he'll be causing havoc in the Kentucky backfield.
The bye week came at the perfect time for the Wildcats, as they'd just suffered back-to-back blowout losses on the road to Georgia and South Carolina. One bright spot in the UGA loss was that freshman QB Cutter Boley played pretty well (225 passing yards, 2 TDs, 77.9 QBR).
Boley will need to find ways to make plays against this insanely tough Texas defense on Saturday night. Kentucky has to find ways to get former Alabama star Kendrick Law the ball. He leads the team in receiving and could create matchup problems at times.
Kentucky's defense is pretty decent against the run, but they've been burned by the deep ball quite a bit. The key question will be if Manning can take advantage of the secondary.
In the famous words of Jurassic Park, "Hold on to your butts!" This one is scary, but man oh man, does the spot line up fantastically for the Wildcats. Kentucky is at home coming off its bye week, and Texas is primed for a letdown after beating archrival Oklahoma last week in the Cotton Bowl.
My pure number on this game is Texas -12 because they'll have the talent edge in all phases. However, I adjusted this down two points because of Kentucky's strength of schedule, which is the 6th-toughest in the nation. Texas has played just the 43rd-toughest schedule. I also gave Kentucky another 1.5 points for being off the bye and Texas in a potential down spot.
So, after all adjustments, I made this line Texas -8.5. That number sounds nuts because of the talent gap, but talent doesn't always show up. Kentucky has been better than Texas in the red zone, and their kicker has been a little more accurate, so we have those two things going for us. The game total is also just 42.5, so getting almost 2 TDs seems awfully valuable. GO BLUE!
Prediction: Texas 24 - Kentucky 17