This week’s premier SEC matchup may not have been on anyone’s radar to begin the season. The No. 16-ranked Vanderbilt Commodores (5-0, 1-0 SEC) travel south to take on the No. 10-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide (3-1, 1-0 SEC) inside Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Vanderbilt is 5-0 for only the second time in more than 100 years. The Commodores have handily beaten their top opponents this season, crushing South Carolina and Virginia Tech in back-to-back weeks.
Alabama pulled off its biggest win of the season last week, defeating the Georgia Bulldogs 24-21. The Crimson Tide will have revenge on their minds after watching Vanderbilt storm the field after toppling Alabama a year ago.
Can the Commodores pull off another upset on Saturday? We’ll cover that and provide bettors with our top three player prop bets for this premier SEC matchup.
Ty Simpson answered a lot of questions last week against Georgia. The junior signal-caller completed 63 percent of his passes against the Bulldogs, finishing with 276 yards and two touchdowns for the Crimson Tide.
While he’s surpassed the 300-yard mark only once this season, oddsmakers believe Simpson is in line to do so against Vanderbilt. No team has surpassed 280 yards against the Commodores this season. That’s why bettors should take the under on this passing prop bet.
Vanderbilt’s culture has changed tremendously thanks to transfer quarterback Diego Pavia. The senior has led the Commodores to a 12-6 mark over the past two seasons, including a victory over Georgia Tech in the Birmingham Bowl.
He’s done it with both his legs and arms. Through five games, Pavia has completed nearly 75 percent of his passes for 1,211 yards. He’s thrown 13 touchdown passes compared to only three interceptions.
On the ground, Pavia is the team’s leading rusher. He’s scored 10 rushing touchdowns during his Vanderbilt career. Coming off back-to-back weeks with him running in at least one touchdown, bettors should expect him to continue that trend this week against Alabama.
Alabama had its feature running back debut last week when senior Jam Miller returned to face Georgia. He finished the game with 46 yards on 16 carries, and he notched another 19 receiving yards off three receptions.
The Commodores' defense is not nearly as strong as Georgia's. Vanderbilt allowed Virginia Tech and Utah State both to have more than 110 rushing yards in previous games. Expect Miller to finish with at least 70 rushing yards on Saturday to cover this player prop bet.
The Commodores are used to being big underdogs to the Crimson Tide. Last season, an undefeated Alabama squad was favored by more than three touchdowns against Vanderbilt. Still, the Commodores prevailed, pulling off a historic upset.
History shouldn’t repeat itself on Saturday. Expect the Crimson Tide to win this game. What bettors should expect is that oddsmakers are discounting Vanderbilt’s chances of winning this game. The Commodores lose this one closer than the 12.5-point spread.