There aren't a lot of marquee games on college football's Week 4 slate, but there are a few diamonds in the rough to watch. Our CFB insider shares his best bets for Florida at Miami and Auburn at Oklahoma in this betting guide. Enjoy the games, and let's put Week 4 in the win column.
It looks as though head coach Billy Napier is likely on his way out after starting this season 1-2, and the lone win coming over lowly Long Island in their opener. Now, they did look better against LSU last week when they lost 20-10 after dropping their previous game at home to South Florida, but they still failed to cover the number.
DJ Lagway and the offense have simply not been able to find success. He has thrown 5 touchdowns to 6 interceptions and has not been doing any damage with his legs. It is hard to see this Gator team turning things around here on the road against one of their biggest rivals.
Miami has had the exact opposite start to its season. After knocking off #6 Notre Dame in their opener, they avoided a letdown the following week against Bethune-Cookman and walked to a 45-3 victory. Then, last week, they put up a dominant performance against the South Florida Bulls, whom many expected to play them tight.
They held the Bulls to just 40 yards on the ground and put up over 500 total yards on their way to a 49-12 win. While John Mateer has been incredible for Oklahoma, Carson Beck has been arguably better for these Canes since coming over from Georgia this year.
This line looks like it could be the biggest trap of the week, but we are falling headfirst into it. The Canes have been able to shut down their opposition's strongest part of their offense in each of their 3 matchups this season.
They have faced tough opponents and do not believe they are going to take this Florida team lightly. In fact, we believe they are going to want to destroy them here at home and key and making DJ Lagway look worse than he has all season.
Carson Beck should be able to use his big game experience to navigate whatever the Gators try to throw at him with their defense.
Florida is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games against Miami-FL.
Florida is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games played in September.
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home.
Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games against Florida.
Auburn played down a bit to the level of their opponents last week when they defeated South Alabama 31-15. They had been coming off a 42-3 win over Ball State the previous week and a solid 38-24 win in their opener on the road at Baylor. The Tigers have failed to cover the last two spreads after winning that opener as an underdog.
Jackson Arnold has seemingly been able to figure out just what his team needs from him to succeed. Against Baylor and South Alabama, they leaned on his legs to get the victory. Against Ball State, he had his best passing game to lead his team to victory.
On defense, the Tigers were stout against the run in their 1st two games but struggled a bit against South Alabama, which rushed for 140 yards in the latest game. This was after they had allowed just 61 yards combined in the previous 2 games.
Oklahoma is undefeated to this point and holds an impressive win over then #15 Michigan in week 2. While they are averaging 33.6ppg, it has been their defense that has been the most impressive part of their season to this point.
They have allowed just 1 touchdown, which came against Michigan, and are holding teams to an average of just 6.3ppg. It has been nearly impossible to have success through the air against this Sooner defense.
They have allowed just 34 passing yards against Illinois State, 142 to Michigan, and 105 against Temple. QB John Mateer has been making a case as the most influential transfer of all the big names that changed schools this offseason.
The Sooners have shut down opposing offenses in strong fashion, but they have not faced someone like Jackson Arnold just yet. Some would argue that Bryce Underwood was in that realm, but we do not believe that is true yet.
Underwood looked better last week, but it seemed as if the handcuffs were on when he faced this Oklahoma team. That said, they kept it within single digits against the Sooners.
We still see Oklahoma winning this game, but it will be much tougher than they have had to this point, and the Tigers will keep it inside the number in this one.
Auburn is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road.
Auburn is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing as the underdog.
Oklahoma is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games played in week 4.