Welcome to Week 4 of college football, sports betting friends. There's nothing like a fall Saturday packed with lots of dynamic games like we have on this weekend's card. I've found some nice expected value on Saturday night's Florida vs. Miami game, which kicks off at 7:30 PM Eastern Time on ABC.
I've broken down all aspects of this matchup and came up with an early best bet for your wagering pleasures. Good luck and enjoy the action! This should be a fun one to watch!
Online sportsbooks opened this line at Miami -9 on the look-ahead line, mainly because of Florida's offensive woes against LSU. Circa, one of the largest sportsbooks in the country, immediately got hit with Florida money. That sent the line down to its current number of Miami -7.5.
As for the game total, there's been some large money coming in on the Under. The line opened at 53.5, and almost every sportsbook in the US is now offering 51.5. The move downward makes sense, again because of Florida's struggles on the offensive side of the ball.
We were on the Gators +10 last week against LSU, and we got away with a lucky push. Florida's defense played well enough to win, but 5 interceptions (one of which was returned for a TD) from QB DJ Lagway were way too much for this team to overcome.
The youngster will have to quit forcing so many throws into tight windows, especially against solid secondaries. Miami has an opportunistic defense, so Lagway must take better care of the football. He's got to quit hurting his team with untimely mistakes.
The Gators have got to find ways to get the ball in RB Jadan Baugh's hands. The 6'1" sophomore leads the team in rushing with 243 yards and a touchdown. The young man is averaging 6.6 yards per carry, so look for Billy Napier to find more ways to get him the ball in this one.
Miami has impressed the heck out of me so far this season. The Canes got a huge win on Labor Day Weekend over Notre Dame, and they've been rolling along quite nicely ever since. Miami was able to shut down an upset-minded South Florida team with ease last week, and they look like one of the more dominant squads in college football so far.
Carson Beck has played outstandingly so far for his new team. The Georgia transfer has thrown for 812 yards and 7 TDs already this season. Beck's favorite target so far has been Malachi Toney, who has registered 18 receptions for 228 yards and a touchdown.
Miami's rush defense has been stifling so far, as they rank 12th in the nation in yards per rush allowed. Mario Cristobal and Co. will lean heavily on his front seven to try and stifle Florida's rushing attack.
It's very difficult to hit submit on a Florida wager this week, but the hardest bets to make are usually the most profitable over the long haul. This is a huge bounce-back game for DJ Lagway, and I think he'll make the most of it. He's nowhere as bad as he's played the last couple of weeks.
Look for Napier to call more screens and quick slants to keep his young QB from thinking too much. As good as Miami's rush defense has been, I think Florida's offensive line can open up some holes for Baugh and Co. The Hurricanes will win, but the Gators will keep it close. C'mon, Gators...get up and go!
Prediction: Miami 27 - Florida 24