Week 1 of the 2025 college football season doesn’t waste any time heating up, and this game is no exception. In addition to various other ranked teams going head-to-head, we also have Notre Dame (6) heading to South Florida tonight to face off with Miami (10) in a matchup that feels like it could shape the rest of the season for both teams.
Playoff hopes, rankings, and reputations are all on the line with tons of storylines to go with it. And with Hard Rock Stadium expected to be rocking — literally — this one promises to deliver the fireworks early.
While it might seem this way, this game isn’t just a ranked showdown — it’s a renewal of one of college football’s most passionate rivalries opening the season. The crowd in Miami is already being hyped up by Mario Cristobal himself, calling for a "maniacal" environment, and the last time Notre Dame came to town, they got steamrolled 41-8. But let's not forget that was back in 2017.
The bookmakers aren’t fully sold on Miami, but they’re not ignoring the home edge either. As of now, Notre Dame is a 2.5-point favorite at -115 on the road, with Miami listed at +2.5 priced at -105. If you like the Irish straight up, their moneyline sits at -142, while a Hurricanes outright win pays +120. The total score for this game is set at 49.5 points, with the over and under both carrying -110 juice.
This is the type of betting line that screams “toss-up” — and it really should when you get down to the brass tax. Notre Dame is coming off a run to the national title game, while Miami is trying to finally break through and prove they’re more than hype. There’s a lot on the line, and both sides have plenty of firepower to get them there.
Notre Dame has plenty of talent on paper, but we all know that talent doesn’t always translate, especially when the lights are brightest. Freshman quarterback CJ Carr is stepping into a nightmare scenario for a debut. He’s on the road, at night, in one of the most hostile atmospheres in college football. Keep in mind that Carr hasn't thrown a single collegiate pass. Now he’s expected to lead a top-10 team with playoff pressure? It’s a stretch to believe it won’t get rocky. Of course, he was considered a top 3 QB in the nation, easily the best HS QB coming out of Michigan, but this is a different level of play.
We won’t be surprised if Kenny Minchey sees the field, especially if Carr struggles early in the game. It would mirror what happened in 2017 when Brian Kelly turned to Ian Book mid-game after the offense stalled. HCs have to adjust as necessary before it’s too late to make up any ground.
Notre Dame's best chance to settle things down lies with Jeremiyah Love, one of the best backs in the country. Love returns after putting up 1,100+ rushing yards and 19 total TDs last season. He runs behind an elite offensive line and could be the Irish’s lifeline in this one. Establishing the ground game won’t just help Notre Dame stay on schedule — it’ll help take the crowd out of it and keep Carr from having to do too much. It’ll be a good way to let him get acclimated to the big stage.
On the other side of the field, Carson Beck is exactly the kind of steady veteran Miami needs. He left Georgia after an uneven season, but a fresh start in South Beach might just be what he needs to unlock what he was supposed to be. He’s not flashy, but he’s efficient, experienced, and knows how to operate in high-pressure situations. Miami doesn’t need him to be a star, although he could be, they just need him to be better than Notre Dame’s quarterback, which might not be a tall order.
With Beck under center and a retooled defense that got a boost in the transfer portal, the Hurricanes finally have a roster that doesn’t feel like it’s being held together with duct tape.
Miami hasn’t lost to Notre Dame at home since 1977, and the last 6 meetings in South Florida haven’t even been close — the Canes have won each by at least 3 scores. If the Irish are going to buck that trend, they’ll need more than just Love’s legs.
Having said that, Marcus Freeman, the Notre Dame HC, has quietly become one of the best big-game coaches in the country. He’s currently going 14-5 against ranked opponents. His team made it to the national title game last season, and even though they lost key pieces on both sides of the ball, the culture in the locker room is strong. Notre Dame’s defense is still expected to be a major strength, which could keep this game from getting out of hand and repeating history.
Miami head coach Mario Cristobal, on the other hand, is just 1-6 vs. ranked teams during his Hurricanes tenure. That’s not a great look, but this game is a defining one for his reputation. Win it, and the narrative changes. Lose it, and the doubts only grow louder, and he just might be looking for a new job.
If this game were being played in South Bend, Notre Dame might be the safer pick. But at Hard Rock Stadium, with an experienced QB, a nighttime atmosphere, and a desperate fanbase backing them, Miami has the momentum to keep the trend going.
There’s no doubt that Notre Dame has the better resume, but Miami has the better setting. The Irish are favored, but this line is close for a reason — and it comes down to QB play. Carr may have a bright future, but Beck has already seen the fire. He knows how to survive it.
We expect a physical, lower-scoring game as these teams figure out who they’re going to be in 2025. Notre Dame’s offense will lean on the run, while Miami finds just enough balance behind Beck and the home crowd energy.
Notre Dame vs Miami Prediction: Miami 27, Notre Dame 20
Best Bet: Miami +2.5 and sprinkle the moneyline at +120
There’s value in backing the home dog with the experienced quarterback, especially when history’s on their side. We’re confident we won’t see a 3-score blowout like years past, but this game is going to go the way of Miami.