The wait is over; college football is finally back! Week 0 may not feature the biggest slate of the year, but it serves as the perfect appetizer for what’s ahead. Fans get their first look at the new season with five games on the schedule, starting the day off with our first head-to-head ranked matchup.
The most intriguing Week 0 matchup is between ranked opponents Kansas State against Iowa State, in the Aer Lingus College Football Classic at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland. Both teams are eager to make an early statement on the international stage.
Neutral-site games always bring intrigue, but this Big 12 showdown is especially interesting given the balance between these two programs and the way their recent history has played out. Both teams are positioned to make a run at the Big 12 title game, in what should be a jam-packed and exciting conference all season.
Kansas State enters 2025 ranked 14th nationally in overall returning production, bringing back 67% of its contributors. The Wildcats return 71% of their offensive output from last season (17th in the nation), including dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson and a veteran offensive line. Johnson threw for over 2,700 yards and added almost 700 on the ground, while running back Dylan Edwards is projected to take a lead role with a 40% carry share. Together, they have a chance to form one of the most dangerous backfields in the conference.
Defensively, Kansas State retains 63% (27th in the nation) of its production, highlighted by a seasoned secondary that should help against pass-heavy opponents. Austin Romaine returns after leading the team with 96 tackles, racking up a season high 12 at Iowa State. While Senior Damian Ilalio leads the interior of that defense and will be leaned on to set the tone, shut down the run, and find the quarterback.
Iowa State comes in at 41st in returning production, bringing back 61% overall, with 65% of its offense and 57% of its defense. Quarterback Rocco Becht was highly productive in 2024, throwing for 3,505 yards with 25 touchdowns, and while I believe he will find some success in this game, Kansas State should find enough stops.
Defensively, the Cyclones pride themselves on discipline, but with only 57% of last year’s starters returning, they’ll have too many holes to fill early on. Kansas State brings more stability on both sides of the ball, particularly up front, and that continuity should pay off in a season opener.
This has been one of the most competitive Big 12 rivalries of the past decade. The teams are split 5-5 over their last ten meetings, and seven of those games were decided by eight points or fewer. Iowa State has actually won the last two matchups, including a 29-21 victory last November, and has covered the spread in four of the last five.
While the Cyclones’ recent success shouldn’t be ignored, Kansas State’s offensive firepower gives them a higher ceiling in 2025. With Avery Johnson entering his second season as the starter and more continuity across the offensive line, I trust Chris Klieman to not drop three straight vs Iowa State.
Quarterback play with Johnson’s dual-threat skill set makes him difficult to game-plan against. His ability to extend plays with his legs adds a dimension Iowa State hasn’t consistently faced, and the Wildcats’ run game should complement him. Returning Offensive production at 71% gives them an edge vs an Iowa State unit that lost more production. Early-season games often favor the more experienced roster.
A couple of key statistics could give us insight into how the game could go on Saturday. The Wildcats ranked second in the nation in fourth-down conversions last year, ranked 11th in yards per play, while Iowa State ranked 83rd in yards allowed per play, and ranked 2nd in yards per rush in the nation. In a neutral-site contest, these key stats could make or break a victory.
Kansas State has won seven of its last eight season openers. Iowa State has failed to cover in six of its last seven openers. That pattern suggests Kansas State’s preparation gives them a reliable edge in Week 0 matchups.
Best Bet: Kansas State Moneyline (-150, MGM)