Happy New Year, sports betting family! The College Football Playoff Semifinals are here, and we have a titanic matchup taking place on Friday night between Ohio State and Texas in the Cotton Bowl.
The action kicks off at 7:30 Eastern on ESPN, and the college football world is juiced to the gills. Ohio State shocked everyone by demolishing Oregon in the Rose Bowl, while Texas survived a double overtime scare against Arizona State in the Peach Bowl. Get our top player prop for this fantastic matchup below. Good luck and enjoy the action!
Online sportsbooks opened this line at Ohio State -6.5 after their impressive victory over Oregon. A touch of action has come in on the Longhorns, so much so that the line is now Ohio State -6 at most shops in the country. Could we see a flurry of Buckeyes money to push this spread to the key number of 7?
As for the game total, there has been a little bit of movement for the Under up to this point. The line opened at 54 but has ticked down to 53 at some spots despite the strength of both offenses.
As I said in a previous column, losing to Michigan may have been a blessing in disguise for this Ohio State team. The Buckeyes have looked like an NFL team ever since that happened and it wouldn't surprise me if they rode that momentum all the way to a national title.
Will Howard didn't get much hype at Kansas State, but he's been an excellent triggerman for Ohio State this season and is finally getting his due after back-to-back stellar performances in the CFP. Howard has an embarrassment of riches to throw to with wideouts like Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka slicing up opposing secondaries.
The offense gets most of the headlines, but the unsung hero of this Buckeyes squad is its defense. Ohio State leads the nation in yards per play allowed and sack rate. Speaking of sacks, JT Tuimoloau leads the team with 10 of them, so Texas better have a plan to slow him down.
The Longhorns have one of the most talented rosters in college football, but we saw how inconsistent they can be last week when they blew a big lead against Arizona State. Texas was also beaten on their home field by Georgia in a game that was never really that close.
All of that said, Texas has enough athletes to give Ohio State plenty of issues on both sides of the ball. Quinn Ewers has thrown for 3189 yards and 29 TDs so far this season. The veteran signal-caller is also looking healthier after playing hurt most of the year. Matthew Golden is his favorite target, as he's racked up 936 receiving yards.
Just like Ohio State, Texas also has a stellar defense. The Horns rank 2nd in yards per play allowed and they lead the country in yards per pass allowed. Texas's corners will be to bring their A-game to slow down the Buckeyes speed on the outside.
I'm still figuring out if I want to play the point spread in this game. My numbers say there's value on the Longhorns, but the Buckeyes' current form makes it hard to pull the trigger. I'll probably pull the trigger on Texas if the line gets to +7, but I'm not sure that it gets to that point.
I love Wisner, but I don't see him doing much damage on the ground against this amazing Ohio State rush defense. The Buckeyes rank 2nd in yards per rush allowed, as they only give up 2.7 yards per tote. Texas only ranks 55th in yards per rush gained.
Wisner's median rushing yardage is 55.5 this season, but I'm adjusting that number down quite a bit because of the Buckeyes front seven. Georgia held Wisner to 52 yards and 51 yards in those two meetings and the Dawgs ranked just 35th in yards per rush allowed.
Wisner has stayed Under this total in 8 of his 14 ball games this season
He's stayed Under this line in 2 of his last 3 outings
His median yards per carry number is just 4.1 this season