2024-25 CFB Sides: 29-19 (+8.1 units)
2024-25 CFB Props: 12-2 (+9.8 units)
Happy New Year, sports betting family! The College Football Playoff Semifinals are here, and we have an amazing battle to kick things off on Thursday between Notre Dame and Penn State.
The action kicks off at 7:30 Eastern on ESPN, and the college football world can hardly wait. Notre Dame throttled Georgia in the Quarterfinals, while Penn State made quick work of Boise State on New Years Eve. Our betting guide for this iconic matchup is presented below. Enjoy the game!
Online sportsbooks opened this line at Notre Dame -1 after their impressive victory over Georgia. Some early sharp action has come in on the Fighting Irish, so much so that the line is now Notre Dame -2 at most shops in the good ole US of A.
As for the game total, there has been a little bit of an appetite for the Under up to this point. The line opened at 47.5 but has ticked down to 46 at some spots because of the toughness of both defenses.
We all know that the Fighting Irish love to pound the rock and they did it quite well against the ferocious Georgia defense last week. Notre Dame ran for 154 yards on 37 rushing attempts and the Bulldogs had little answer for the 1-2 combo of Riley Leonard and Jeremiyah Love.
Speaking of Leonard, Penn State will have to worry about stopping him on the ground and through the air. The former Duke Blue Devil has thrown for 2383 yards and 18 TDs this season. He's also found the end zone 15 times with his legs.
Notre Dame's offense is efficient, but the defense is the backbone of this team. The Fighting Irish rank 5th in yards per play allowed and 3rd in yards per pass allowed. Xavier Watts anchors the secondary and leads the team with 6 interceptions.
I've been a pretty big critic of Drew Allar in past seasons, but he's looked like a different QB this year. The 6'5" junior has looked supremely confident in each game this season with the exception of Ohio State. Allar has thrown for 3192 yards and 24 TDs during the '24-25 campaign.
Allar's favorite target is his big tight end, Tyler Warren. The 6'6" senior leads the Nittany Lions with 98 receptions and 8 TDs this season. Allar also has a couple of 1,000-yard rushers behind him in Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton.
The Penn State defense has played lights out for most of the year, as they rank 8th in yards per rush allowed and 6th in yards per play allowed. Abdul Carter is one of the top pass rushers in the country, so Notre Dame may have to double team him quite often to keep their QB clean.
Game Prediction: Notre Dame 23 - Penn State 21
I respect Leonard's passing ability, and he does have a few weapons at his disposal. However, his main tool is his running game, so I don't see him throwing for a ton of yards in this game. My projections say that this line is about 20 yards too high, so I'll gladly take the Under.
Leonard's median passing yardage is 163 so far this season. However, I think that number should be adjusted downward because of Penn State's stellar pass defense. The Nittany Lions rank 21st in yards per pass allowed, so I don't see Leonard hitting many deep balls.
Need some more metrics that back up the Under? Leonard has stayed under this total in 8 of his 14 games this season. He's also stayed under this number in 3 of his last 4 outings!