With the bowl season nearly wrapped up, the final Power 4 conference matchup in the 2024 bowl season kicks off when the Duke Blue Devils (9-3) take on the No. 14 ranked Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) on Thursday in the Gator Bowl.
Duke used its defense to carve out their winning record this season. The Blue Devils played in seven games that were decided by one score this season, going 6-1 in those outings. Duke mustered enough offense to remain competitive, but the Blue Devils were not using their offensive firepower to outscore their opponents.
That’s not the case with Ole Miss as the SEC school found ways to lose tight games. The Rebels did not win a close contest this season, besting every opponent with double-digit margins in 2024.
Can Duke win in another close contest, or will Ole Miss race past the short-staffed Blue Devil? We’ll answer that question and provide you with our three best player prop bets for Thursday’s Gator Bowl.
Senior quarterback Jaxson Dart has finished up his third solid season with the Rebels this year, completing 68.6 percent of his passes for 3,875 yards and 25 touchdowns. He also rushed for 452 yards this season, adding three scores on the ground for his team.
Duke’s defense will still have plenty of star power on Thursday, but Ole Miss is easily the second-strongest team it will have faced this season. Dart will likely be finished by halftime of this blowout victory, preventing him from achieving 265 passing yards on Thursday.
Senior wide receiver Jordan Watkins was not the team leader in either receptions or yards, but the 5-foot-11 player did catch a team-best seven touchdowns this season. He finished with 42 receptions for 726 yards, numbers that were slightly down from last season’s production.
With fellow receivers Cayden Lee and Tre Harris both available for this contest, Watkins should continue to produce the four-to-five targets he’s customarily received this season. Only twice did he surpass that mark, giving bettors confidence to take the under on this prop bet.
Bowl season once was the best time of the year as players from every team competed for one last time before either preparing for the NFL draft or the final game of eligibility. The transfer portal – and its December window – have changed that drastically.
Take this game for example. Duke quarterback Maalik Murphy? Headed to Oregon State. Blue Devils running back Star Thomas? Sure, some of the team’s better receivers are staying, but Henry Belvin is making his second career start now that Duke’s primary backup quarterback Grayson Loftis is also entering the portal.
With slim pickings, we’re headed back to Dart for another player prop bet. Only three of the 12 games Dart played this season did he eclipse the two-touchdown threshold for this bet, but he did so in dramatic fashion each time. Expect coach Lane Kiffin to dial up a few passing plays to give his senior signal-caller a curtain call for Dart to throw three touchdowns and cover this bet.
Usually, teams like Ole Miss – programs that were believed to be in contention for a college football playoff spot – struggle in bowl games against lesser competition with nothing on the line. See Alabama and its huge upset loss to Michigan as a prime example.
But the Rebels do have plenty to play for on Thursday. Ole Miss is continuing to build its program to become an annual playoff contender, and having Dart on the field shows that the draft-eligible players are taking this postseason game seriously. Ole Miss wins easily, covering this large point spread against the weakened Duke program.