The first-ever 12-team college football playoff is producing some exciting matchups in 2024, including the No. 11 ranked SMU Mustangs (11-2) heading to Happy Valley to face the No. 6 ranked Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) on Saturday.
SMU nearly pulled off one of the most impressive college football seasons to date, losing on a last-second field goal to Clemson in the ACC Championship game. The Mustangs – who were competing in the ACC for the first time this season – steamrolled every other conference member on their way to the championship game.
Penn State also completed an impressive season, losing only to the Ohio State Buckeyes to make the Big Ten Championship game. The Nittany Lions hung close to the No. 1 ranked Oregon Ducks, falling to them in the title game 45-37.
Will SMU’s magical season continue, or does Penn State have what it takes to advance in the college football playoffs? We’ll cover that and our three best player prop bets for this opening-round contest.
Penn State has a potential NFL first-round quarterback starting this season in quarterback Drew Allar. The 6-foot-5 junior has thrown for 2,894 yards, 21 touchdowns, and seven interceptions this season while adding 279 rushing yards and six touchdowns on 72 carries.
Look for the Nittany Lions to attack the Mustangs through the air on Saturday. SMU has been susceptible to strong quarterbacks this season, yielding over 232 passing yards per outing. Expect Allar and his offense to take advantage of this as he covers this player prop bet
SMU has a speedy senior wide receiver in Roderick Daniels Jr. The 5-foot-9 athlete has a team-best 38 receptions for 599 yards. He’s also recorded three receiving touchdowns this season. He’s also scored three times and recorded 163 rushing yards on 43 carries.
Against the Nittany Lions, Daniels should easily surpass this player prop mark of 47.5 receiving yards. The Mustangs are expected to trail much of the game, and Penn State’s passing defense has been its Achilles heel this season. Expect SMU to work Daniels into the game plan early and often on Saturday.
Penn State’s offense has been rejuvenated with Andy Kotelnicki taking the reins this season. The Nittany Lions are scoring better than 35 points a game and feature a sure-fire All-American in tight end Tyler Warren. This season, Warren has caught 88 passes for 1,062 yards and six scores while running for 191 yards on 23 carries and four more touchdowns.
Facing the Mustangs will be a tall task for the Nittany Lions. In their last outing, SMU held Clemson to just 64 rushing yards on 32 attempts. It was their third consecutive game holding an opponent to under 100 rushing yards this season, and the Mustangs have allowed only 10 rushing touchdowns this year.
Instead of Penn State running back Nicholas Singleton, the safer anytime touchdown prediction rests on Warren’s shoulders. The Nittany Lions have done an excellent job of moving him around this season to get open looks near the endzone. Expect Penn State to continue that on Saturday to use this future NFL tight end to light up the scoreboard.
This isn’t a bet that SMU will pull off a miracle victory over the Nittany Lions. Instead, the Mustangs – who have lost by a combined six points this season – will be able to keep the game close with Penn State should finish under this hefty point spread.
The total points spread of 53.5 points is a hard line to predict. Penn State’s defense has been impressive much of the season and held opponents to 20 points or fewer eight times this year.
Yet lapses against Oregon and Minnesota show how a strong offense can be effective against the Nittany Lions. The Mustangs have that with a solid ground and aerial attack.