The first 12-team playoff in college football kicks off on Friday, December 20th with a fantastic matchup between Indiana and Notre Dame. This big-time battle will be not only for statewide supremacy but for a date with Georgia in the Quarterfinals on January 1, 2025.
Can Curt Cignetti keep Indiana's dream season alive? Or will Notre Dame's physicality and talent be too much for the Hoosiers to overcome? We'll cover these two questions and more in our betting preview below. Good luck, sports investors!
Oddsmakers opened this opening-round playoff game at Notre Dame -8 but that number was quickly bet down to Notre Dame -7. The early money on Indiana wasn't that big of a surprise, especially since the Hoosiers were 9-3 against the spread this season.
There's been only a small amount of movement on the total for this game. The line opened at 51.5 and a little bit of Under money has pushed it down to 51 at most online sportsbooks. There are a couple of rogue 50.5s out there for folks who want to bet on the Over.
The Hoosiers were only average at running the ball this season, but their passing game was elite. Indiana ranks 5th in the country in yards per pass thanks to QB Kurtis Rourke (2,827 passing yards, 27 TDs). Rourke's favorite target has been junior wide receiver Elijah Sarratt, who hauled in 49 catches for 890 yards and 8 TDs.
Indiana's defense has been one of the most improved units in the nation. The Hoosiers rank 2nd in yards per rush allowed and 3rd in yards per play allowed. Mikail Kamara leads the team with 10 sacks this season, and he'll be looking to put pressure on Riley Leonard in this one.
A lot of folks wrote Notre Dame off after their head-scratching loss to Northern Illinois in Week 2. However, Marcus Freeman rallied the troops and the Irish responded by winning 10 straight ball games. Notre Dame finished the season with four wins over Top 25 teams.
Notre Dame loves to pound the rock, and they do it quite well. The 1-2 punch of Riley Leonard and Jeremiyah Love is the main reason why they rank 2nd in yards per rush gained this season. The Fighting Irish prefer to do most of their damage on the ground, but Leonard has still thrown for over 2,000 yards this year.
Much like Indiana, the strength of this Irish team is their elite defense. Notre Dame ranks 2nd in yards per pass allowed, so Indiana may have a hard tough moving the ball effectively through the air. Safety Xavier Watts leads the squad with five interceptions.
Now that this line has dipped down to -7, I'm placing my bet on the Fighting Irish. Indiana has been a remarkable story, but I can't get how overmatched they looked against Ohio State out of my head. The Hoosiers were boat-raced by 23 points in that game, and that was the only time they faced a Top 25 team.
Out of all the first-round playoff games, this is the one where my ratings differ greatly from the point spread. I make the line Notre Dame -10, so I have no problem laying the touchdown in this spot. South Bend will be rocking and so will the Fighting Irish.
Prediction: Notre Dame 31 - Indiana 21