I know everyone is fired up for the College Football Playoffs and rightfully so. However, don't forget about some of the so-called 'minor' bowl games just because they don't have national title implications. There's often plenty of betting value in these spots if you can properly assess how each team is approaching the game.
In this piece, we're doing a deep dive into the Gasparilla Bowl matchup between Tulane and Florida. The Gators will be looking to sustain the nice 3-game winning streak that gave them bowl eligibility. The Green Wave will be looking to get back on track after being routed by Army in the AAC Title Game.
Holy line movement, Batman! Oddsmakers opened this point spread at Florida -9.5, but that moved quickly after Tulane starting QB Darian Mensah entered the portal and committed to Duke. The line now sits at Florida -14 at most online sportsbooks.
As volatile as the point spread has been, the total has been super quiet so far. The number opened at 49.5 and that's where we still sit at the time of this writing. There is one prominent book that's dealing 50 if the Under piques your interest.
The loss of Mensah definitely hurts the Green Wave in this spot, as he was a team leader and one of the AAC's top QBs. Nevertheless, the cupboard isn't bare for Tulane. Former Oregon five-star recruit Ty Thompson will get the start, even though he's also in the transfer portal.
Thompson is a true dual-threat QB who has good size (6'4", 224) and a strong arm. He reminds some scouts of Adrian Martinez or Joe Milton. Thompson is using this game as a showcase for Power Four schools, so he'll be more than motivated to prove himself.
Tulane's defense struggled against the run this season, so they may have trouble against Florida's larger O-line. That said, the Green Wave does a great job of getting off the field on 3rd down (13th) and against the pass. Tyler Grubbs leads the team with 59 tackles.
Oh, what a difference a few months makes! Billy Napier went from being on the hot seat to making a bowl game after winning three straight games to close the regular season. While lots of folks counted the Gators out, Napier's squad pulled off upsets against LSU and Ole Miss.
Freshman DJ Lagway has been a big reason for Florida's turnaround. The Willis, TX native threw for 1,610 yards and 11 TDs during the regular season. Napier loves to pound the rock with RB Jadan Baugh, who amassed 603 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns on the ground.
Florida's defensive numbers were pretty ugly this season, but most of that is because they play in the rugged SEC. The Gators rank just 98th in passing yards allowed and 84th in rushing yards allowed. They do, however, rush the passer quite well.
I don't usually like fading the SEC in bowl games, but this just seems like way too many points. Even with giving Florida some home-field edge because of the closing driving distance to Tampa, I still make this game Florida -11.5.
The loss of Mensah is concerning, but something in my gut tells me that this Thompson kid can play. At the end of the day, I think the Gators win but only by around 10 or so. Let's take the points with the Green Wave!
Prediction: Florida 27 - Tulane 17