The SEC Championship will undoubtedly deliver fireworks as the Georgia Bulldogs and Texas Longhorns meet in the most anticipated rematch of the college football conference championships. Georgia is hungry to dominate again while the Longhorns want redemption.
With Georgia listed as a 2.5-point underdog and the over/under at 49.5, this game is going to be a very tight battle.
Texas comes into this game as slight favorites at -2.5. The line shifted from its initial -1.5 mark over the past couple of days.
The over/under has also moved down slightly, which means there’s an expectation of a defensive struggle. Both teams have high hopes for the playoffs, but the stakes in Atlanta go beyond just rankings — the SEC title is on the line. They’re also fighting for a coveted first-round bye in the College Football Playoff.
For Georgia, the challenge is a bit different than their first matchup. ESPN's Football Power Index gives them just a 38.5% chance of victory. This is mostly due to Texas' red-hot form, particularly on defense. Their D held Texas A&M scoreless offensively in a dominant 17-7 win last weekend.
On the other side of the ball, Georgia is riding the momentum of a gritty rivalry win over Georgia Tech. Of course, that game left some lingering questions about their run defense.
QB Carson Beck will be one of the biggest factors in Georgia's hopes.
Beck has been fairly efficient lately, with 11 TDs and no turnovers in the last 3 games. That’s not too bad considering this was against Florida, Ole Miss, and Tennessee. However, it was the turnovers that nearly cost them in the previous meeting with Texas. That’s where Beck threw 3 interceptions despite notching the win.
If Georgia's QB can maintain his clean streak and exploit the few gaps in the Texas secondary, the Bulldogs could find success through the air and Beck can add a few more TDs to his stat line.
Defensively, Georgia has been uncharacteristically leaky against the run. They’ve given up big numbers to UMass (226 rushing yards) and Georgia Tech (260 rushing yards) in recent weeks.
With Texas’ ground game led by Quintrevion Wisner, who ran for 186 yards against Texas A&M, this matchup just might be the deciding factor in this game.
The Longhorns are obviously peaking at the right time.
Their defense ranks among the best nationally, particularly against the pass. Georgia will face a tall order trying to air it out against this secondary.
Taking it a step further, Texas also has revenge on its mind. Having lost to Georgia earlier in the season in a game marred by turnovers, the Longhorns are coming into this game wanting to prove themselves and secure the first-round bye.
Offensively, even with quarterback Quinn Ewers playing at less than 100%, the Longhorns have leaned heavily on their rushing game. Wisner has been nothing less than electric, and Texas has the advantage of a dominant offensive line that could take advantage of Georgia’s struggling run defense.
This just might be a game that’s won and lost in the trenches.
This rematch feels like it’s tilting in Texas’ favor, so we can see why the odds reflect that.
The Longhorns have been more consistent over the past few weeks and are arguably the more complete team at this stage of the season.
Georgia’s reliance on Beck to deliver a perfect game, compounded by their defensive vulnerabilities, puts them in a tough spot for the SEC championship.
We think that Texas will win this one and cover the 2.5-point spread. Their defensive dominance and potent rushing attack will be the big differences in this game and they’ll ultimately secure a playoff bye and the SEC title.
BettorsInsider Prediction: Texas 27, Georgia 21