The Big Ten Championship will host one of the best matchups we’ve seen when the undefeated Oregon Ducks (12-0) and the one-loss Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1) go head to head later today. Oregon enters the game as a slight 3.5-point favorite, with total points over/under set at 49.5. The game kicks off at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, and both teams are doing what they can to get a bye in the first round of the College Football Playoffs.
If you’re looking to bet on this game, we’ve got the best prediction and expert analysis heading into tonight’s matchup.
Oregon Moneyline: -166
Penn State Moneyline: +140
The Ducks have been dominant this season. They’re currently boasting a perfect 12-0 record and a 7-game home winning streak to boot.
Oregon’s offense is led by their wondrous QB Dillon Gabriel, who has notched 3,275 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, and only 6 interceptions. He’s definitely shining this year and is in the discussion for the Heisman Trophy.
Backing him up is a balanced attack with Jordan James who has rushed for 1,166 yards and 13 touchdowns. On the end of the line, receiver Tez Johnson, who’s racked up 9 touchdowns this year looks to make a statement in the Big Ten Championship.
For Penn State, quarterback Drew Allar has been efficient for the most part. He’s thrown for 2,668 yards, 18 touchdowns, and only 5 interceptions. In general, he’s keeping up with Gabriel, but it’s also worth noting that Penn’s style of play is a bit different.
Running back Nicholas Singleton (733 rushing yards, 7 TDs) and tight end Tyler Warren (978 receiving yards, 6 TDs) anchor the offense and look to shine tonight.
Defensively, Penn State allows just a mere 14 points per game, the sixth-best in the nation.
All of that to say, this makes this a battle of Oregon’s explosive offense versus Penn State’s staunch defense.
The Ducks thrive on a fast-paced offense. So far this season, they’re averaging 35.2 points per game which is absolutely insane.
They’ve also been stellar in passing efficiency, sitting at 24th nationally in passing yards per game. They like to take to the skies and it’s easy to see why.
Oregon’s offensive line, led by easily future NFL talent, has protected Gabriel pretty well even against strong defenses. They’ve allowed the Ducks to maintain an offensive balance most teams can’t keep up with.
Defense, of course, will be Penn State’s lifeline.
The Nittany Lions have allowed just 14 points and 168 passing yards per game which ranks them among the best in both categories.
Their secondary will unquestionably be tested heavily against Gabriel and Johnson, but if they can limit the big plays with big yardage, Penn State has a real shot of taking this game.
The Nittany Lions' offensive line took a hit with Anthony Donkoh’s recent injury, but backup Nolan Rucci has already stepped up in their last outing.
However, Oregon’s defense, which has a whopping 32 sacks on the season, will make this a major storyline.
Both teams have an offense that can dominate the field; however, the more each side of the ball disrupts the other at the line, the better their chances are at winning this one. The key is slowing down the tempo of the other side.
Oregon has covered the spread in 7 of its last 8 games against AP-ranked teams. They’ve shown they can put up big numbers and absolutely crush the competition. Penn State, on the other hand, has been a mediocre 6-6 ATS this season.
This game will hinge on whether Penn State’s defense can slow down Oregon’s high-octane offense.
While Penn State has been tough when it’s mattered the most, the Ducks’ balance on both sides of the ball gives them the edge in this game. Oregon’s experience in close games and their ability to adjust offensively will be the most decisive key to the game.
BettorsInsider Bet: Oregon -3.5
The Ducks’ offense is just too dynamic for Penn State to handle, especially if the Nittany Lions struggle to sustain drives. Oregon covers the spread with a strong fourth quarter.
We think Oregon’s perfect season continues, and they solidify their spot in the College Football Playoff as the top seed in the first ever 12-team format.