Clemson and SMU are gearing up for the biggest games of their seasons this Saturday in Charlotte, North Carolina. With the ACC title at stake and undoubtedly some major College Football Playoff implications, this matchup is going to be explosive and has plenty on the line.
Here’s what you need to know about the odds, analysis, and our best bet for this game.
As of now, SMU is a slight favorite over the Tigers, with the spread set at -2.5. The over/under at 55.5 tells us that the bookmakers think this will be an offensive showdown.
On the moneyline, the Mustangs sit at -135, while the Tigers come in at +115. These odds are about as close to even as you’ll get in an ACC Championship game. The implied score prediction of 29-26.5 leans in SMU’s favor. This slim margin indicates what we’re already thinking — it will be a tight game.
For Clemson, this is a chance to reclaim their ACC glory and potentially sneak into the expanded College Football Playoff format. They’re 17th in the nation and only the top 12 teams make it in. So, with a win, they might barely make it.
Meanwhile, SMU’s remarkable debut in the ACC could be capped off with a historic title win, putting their playoff aspirations on solid footing as they’re 8th in the nation. A loss could move them out of the fight.
SMU enters with a smoking hot 11-1 record which includes an undefeated conference run.
Quarterback Kevin Jennings has been fairly efficient, throwing for 2,746 yards, 19 touchdowns, and just 7 picks on the season. Behind him, Brashard Smith has been explosive on the ground with 1,154 yards and 14 TDs of his own.
Combined with a deep receiving corps led by Roderick Daniels Jr., the Mustangs boast one of the best offenses in the nation. With superstars like these, if they make the CFP, they might just go deep.
SMU’s defense has also stepped up, allowing just 237 points all season, ranking 84th nationally.
They’ve held opponents to fewer points than Clemson, which has allowed 259 which is good for 110th in the nation, showcasing a balanced approach on both sides of the ball.
For Clemson, this game represents a return to relevance after a couple of, what we’d call, underwhelming seasons.
Quarterback Cade Klubnik leads the Tigers’ offense with a solid 3,041 passing yards and 29 TDs. While Clemson's rushing attack is decent, led by Phil Mafah (1,078 yards, 8 TDs), their offense has been somewhat inconsistent against top-tier teams like SMU. They’ve lost to both South Carolina and Louisville in the last 5 weeks and those teams don’t compare to the Mustangs.
Defensively, Clemson is allowing 21.6 points per game. That is their worst since 2015. The Tigers have struggled against the run, giving up an average of 150.3 yards per game. That just might be the critical weakness against SMU’s powerful ground game.
Here’s how we see these two CFB powerhouses stacking up against one another—
Offense. SMU averages 441.8 yards per game (30th nationally), while Clemson sits higher at 465.7 yards (12th). Both teams can unquestionably move the ball, though Clemson has an edge in overall total yardage.
Defense: SMU’s ability to limit scoring (306th in points allowed at 470) contrasts sharply with Clemson’s ranking at 289th at 428. However, it’s Clemson’s recent defensive struggles that make us question them coming into this matchup.
Efficiency: SMU has been more disciplined, with fewer penalties and a better turnover margin. We don’t see this as the determining factor, but it’ll simply pile onto the defensive woes.
We see this game hinging on 2 factors — SMU’s ability to take advantage of Clemson’s defensive lapses and the Tigers’ inconsistency against ranked opponents (a dismal 0-2 this season). SMU has been a dominant team throughout their 2024 campaign, leveraging balanced offense and disciplined play. Clemson, while unquestionably talented, has struggled to string together complete performances in big games.
The key matchup will be SMU’s rushing attack against Clemson’s shaky run defense. We just don’t see them holding off the Mustangs. If Brashard Smith gets going early, and he usually does, it could open up passing lanes for Jennings to attack Clemson’s secondary.
BettorsInsider Pick: SMU -2.5 (-135).
SMU’s consistency and explosiveness on offense make them the safer bet heading into this ACC Championship. We expect a close game, but the Mustangs’ balanced attack should edge out Clemson in the end.