One of the top games of the Week 13 college football slate has the Minnesota Golden Gophers hosting Penn State Nittany Lions. Will James Franklin build his team's playoff resume, or will Minnesota pull off the unthinkable upset?
Check out our betting preview for this Big Ten battle. Good luck with all of your Week 13 college football action. Let's get into the breakdown.
Even with Penn State being the road team, most online sportsbooks expect somewhat of a blowout on Saturday afternoon in Minneapolis. The line opened at Penn State -12, and that's still the current price at most shops. There are a few spots that are dealing Penn State -11.5 or -12.5, so be sure to shop around for the best price.
There hasn't been a lot of movement on the game total. The number opened up at 45 on Sunday afternoon and a little bit of smart Over money has pushed it up to 45.5 at one prominent site. The rest of the shops are sitting comfortably at the opening number of 45.
Penn State dropped a heartbreaker to Ohio State a couple of weeks ago, but they've bounced back with emphatic wins over Washington and Purdue. I'll give them credit for the big win over the Huskies, but the Boilermakers are by far the worst team in the Big Ten.
Drew Allar has turned things around for this Penn State offense this season. He's improved his completion percentage by a whopping 12 points and his QB rating is up by over 35 points. Allar's favorite target has been tight end Tyler Warren, who has amassed 808 receiving yards and 5 TDs this season.
The offense has improved quite a bit, but the strength of this Nittany Lions squad is their defense. They rank 5th in points allowed 13th in yards per rush allowed, and 8th in yards per play allowed. Abdul Carter is one of the best pass rushers in the country, as he's racked up 8 sacks so far this year.
The Golden Gophers are already bowl-eligible with a 6-4 record, and they already have two wins over Top 25 teams (USC and Illinois). Even still, Minnesota would love nothing more than to hand Penn State its second loss of the season. PJ Fleck proved that he could beat these guys back in 2019, so anything is possible.
Minnesota's offense has been painful to watch at times in 2024. Transfer QB Max Brosmer has done a good job of being a game manager and not turning the ball over. That said, this is an offense that lacks explosiveness with both the run and the pass.
The defense has done the heavy lifting for the Gophers this season, as they rank 17th in points allowed, 25th in yards per play allowed, and 24th in yards per pass allowed. Koi Perich has been the leader of the secondary, as he's hauled in 5 interceptions.
This is a scary bet because James Franklin is notorious for running up the score when he can against inferior teams. That said, I wouldn't say that Minnesota is all that much inferior to Penn State.
The Gophers' two quality wins over USC and Illinois prove that they can play with the big boys. With a low game total of only 45, getting an extra 12.5 points in our favor is even more valuable. Look for Penn State to win, but Minnesota's defense will keep this one close!
Prediction: Penn State 24 - Minnesota 17