This is undoubtedly the game of the weekend, with Ohio State taking on Oregon in Eugene. We could see who is real this week, as this is the first significant game either team has played all year. The weight of this game is massive, as it could likely determine who makes the college football playoffs and who could be edged out. This is what it’s all about, as we’ll get to see who the better team is firsthand!
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This game is close to home for me. Living in Oregon and going to the rival Oregon State, I’ve followed Oregon closely for a while. See them firsthand in week three: destroy my alma mater. This team has taken some time to get going, but things are finally clicking. Earlier in the year, you could tell this team had been tossed together, and it showed when teams like Idaho could push them around. Since then, they have improved weekly as these players have grown more comfortable with each other.
The offensive line, in particular, looked pitiful. There was no push, and I couldn’t prevent the pass rush and missed blocking assignments. It has improved over the season, but they’ve never been tested like this. Ohio State is an entirely different animal than anything they have faced. Oregon hasn’t played anyone notable so far beyond Boise State, which was a miracle they won that one. It took a punt and kickoff return to beat them by a field goal. This team isn’t the Ducks we knew from last year; they’re shakier and lack that touch of swagger that has been a calling card of Oregon for a while.
That being said, home-field advantage this weekend is huge. Autzen is nothing if not a madhouse full of the loudest fans in college sports. These people are insane.
Even with home-field advantage, the Ducks are the dog in this fight, coming in as a 3.5 underdog to Ohio State. Tt feels right though, this one could go wrong for the Ducks. There is some optimism that this team has kept it's best tricks a secret for this game. Regardless, they'll need to show more for the Ducks to overcome the Buckeyes.
The Buckeyes, on the other hand, are the team to beat in the Big 10. Though, they’re also in a similar position as the Ducks. They’ve stomped the competition, but who has the competition been? Akron? Marshall? A rebuilding Michigan State? We haven’t seen them tested, which is a balancing factor in this matchup. The biggest reason the confidence coming into this game is with the Buckeyes is their defense. The offense has done its job, but the defense has gone out of its way to make sure they lock down teams. They have only allowed around 250 yards of total offense from their opponents every game this year. Ryan Day has put together a lean team full of talent on both sides of the ball. It is hard to argue with the results.
Ultimately, this game will be a grudge match between a team that thrives on offense and a team that is a stone wall on defense. We’ll see if Dan Lanning can pull this group together and upset the leader of the Big 10 in year one of the expanded conference.
With the spread sitting where it is, 3.5, we tend to lean towards the Ducks for the spread. As the +3.5 dog at home, this game will be close; it would be surprising if either team runs away with this one. That extra half-point makes this line feel extra juicy as well! We still don’t feel like a +126 money line on the ducks is enough to pull the trigger on, but we’ll keep an eye on it. If it crawls above +135, it might be a little more tempting. They have the point total set at 54.5. Even though both teams have scored heaps against lower-level teams, we don’t think it will be the same for this game. We could see points being hard to come by, as both defenses have had plenty of time and film to prep for this game.
Overall, Ohio State is still the safe bet here, sitting at -152 for the money line isn’t amazing, especially for a 2 vs 3 matchup. We’d feel much better about that line if the Buckeyes were at home, but in Autzen it’s going to be hard to steal this game. Ultimately, we just think Ohio State is a more complete, championship-ready team than this Ducks roster.