All eyes will be focused on Thursday's College Football Playoff Semifinal, but that doesn't mean you should neglect college hoops. Let us let you in on a little secret: The money won on college basketball is just as green as playoff football.
Our best bets for January 8th are below. Best of luck with all of your wagers! Let's dive into the analytics.
Binghamton catching a large number against Vermont looks like a potential blowout, but the underlying data support this as a playable spread. Vermont’s offense is efficient, ranking top-60 nationally in effective field goal percentage (55.5%), but Binghamton’s defense is built to limit explosive scoring runs by forcing longer possessions and keeping opponents off the free-throw line.
Vermont does not generate offense through creating turnovers, ranking 345th in turnover rate (14.2%), while Binghamton’s offense, although inefficient, plays better when allowed to operate in the half court, and can get good looks inside the arc.
Where Binghamton can keep this game within range is at the foul line. The Bearcats rank 4th nationally in free-throw rate (0.501), a massive edge against a Vermont defense that sits 236th in free-throw rate allowed (0.367). That discrepancy, if Central Arkansas chooses to be aggressive, could create scoring opportunities to keep this game closer than the spread suggests.
While Binghamton struggles from deep (29.4% from three, ranking 338th), Vermont’s defense also ranks 325th in three-point percentage allowed (36.5%), opening the door for bad shooting teams to find some luck. Vermont’s defensive rebounding is strong, but they do not dominate the glass offensively, ranking 274th in offensive rebounding percentage, while Binghamton ranks 120th allowing offensive rebounds. If the Bearcats can keep Vermont off the offensive glass, that should limit the ability to separate.
Best Bet: Win 1% Binghamton +18.5 (-115, HardRock)
Bellarmine’s offense is highly efficient, ranking 15th nationally in effective field goal percentage (58.8%), but Central Arkansas counters with strong rebounding and the ability to create turnovers (51st nationally).
Central Arkansas ranks 35th in free-throw rate (0.271) defensively, while Bellarmine’s defense allows a high volume of fouls, ranking 103rd in free-throw rate allowed (0.388). That edge is especially important in close games, where free throws often decide outcomes late in the game.
As we mentioned, Central Arkansas holds a notable advantage in rebounding. Bellarmine ranks 359th in offensive rebounding percentage, while Central Arkansas sits 62nd, limiting second-chance opportunities. Bellarmine also struggles defensively inside, allowing opponents to shoot almost 60% from 2-point %, ranked 359th in the country.
Bellarmine’s defense also ranks 357th in effective field goal percentage allowed, and 331st in overall field goal percentage allowed, showing consistent issues containing opponents. While Central Arkansas is not an elite shooting team, they do rank inside the top-80 in 2-point %, an area they can attack Bellarmine time and time again.
With both teams averaging similar scoring outputs, Bellarmine has the worst unit on the court, their defense, allowing over 80 points per game. With Central Arkansas holding advantages in rebounding and free-throw volume, they can pull off the road upset and win this game outright. If you don’t like to take 1.5, I am fine with their ML price!
Best Bet: 1.5% Central Arkansas +1.5 (-118, Fanduel)