The Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament rolls into Friday, March 28th and we can't wait for the action. This article zeroes in on Ole Miss vs. Michigan State, which should be a remarkable SEC vs. Big Ten showdown.
A trip to the Elite Eight will be on the line when these two remarkable college basketball programs meet on Friday at 7:09 PM Eastern on CBS. After digging into all of the crucial metrics, I found a side I like enough to bet. Check that out below, and best of luck this weekend with all of your wagers.
Most online sports betting apps opened this point spread at Michigan State -4 on the look-ahead line on Sunday night. That was a little bit surprising to some folks, especially since the Spartans had kind of a tough time against New Mexico in the second round.
A lot of sharp money has come in on Ole Miss, so much so that Michigan State is now only a 3-point favorite as of Tuesday morning. Are the sharps fully accounting for how deep Michigan State's backcourt is?
The total has seen a little bit of movement both ways. The line opened at 144 and some shops are now hanging 143.5 while others are offering 144.5. Both of these teams rank outside the Top 120 in three-point shooting, so I'd lean toward the Under if I had to play the total.
The 6th-seeded Rebels have surprised a lot of people so far in the Big Dance. They blew out Iowa State in the second round after hanging on to beat a very talented North Carolina team in the opening round. The Rebels only average 9 turnovers per game, which is the 4th-lowest in the country.
Sean Pedulla is the engine that makes the Ole Miss offense go. The senior guard leads the Rebels in both scoring and assists this season. Michigan State will have to keep an eye on Pedulla, especially if he gets hot from beyond the arc.
Ole Miss's defense has played better lately, but it can still be their Achilles heel at times. The Rebs rank just 209th in 2-point defense and they've often struggled to rebound the ball. That could be an issue against Michigan State's insanely good guards.
Tom Izzo has a knack for getting the most out of his teams once March rolls around. This year has been no different, as Michigan State has won 10 of its last 11. However, beating a top-tier SEC team could be a tall order.
The Spartans guards are some of the best in the country. Jase Richardson has really established himself as a reliable scorer and Jaden Akins is always a threat to knock down shots from downtown. Jeremy Fears and Tre Holloman are also excellent facilitators for this Michigan State offense.
Michigan State's offense gets most of the hype, but their defense is the real strength of this squad. Sparty ranks 11th in opponent effective field goal percentage. They also lead the nation in three-point defense, so Ole Miss's guards may not get many open looks in that area.
I don't make buying points a habit, but I think it's worth it if the line falls in the -2 to -3 range like this one. Ole Miss has loads of talent, but I don't see how they'll contain Jase Richardson and Jaden Akins for an entire 40 minutes. I also don't think we can overestimate how much of a coaching edge Izzo will have in this game.
The Spartans should have a huge edge on the glass, as they rank 10th in overall rebounding while the Rebels rank just 267th. Look for big man Jaxon Kohler to get his teammates a few second-chance opportunities on the offensive glass as well. Let's lay the points!
Michigan State is 8-2 ATS in '24-25 against ranked opponents.
Michigan State is 19-9 ATS as a favorite this season.
Michigan State is 8-5 ATS in non-conference games this season.