The Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament starts on Thursday, March 27th and we can't wait for some of the massive matchups. This piece focuses on Maryland vs. Florida, which should be a remarkable Big Ten vs. SEC duel.
A trip to the Elite Eight will be on the line when these two storied college hoops programs collide on Thursday at 7:39 PM Eastern on TBS. After digging into all of the vital stats, I found a side I like quite a bit. Check that out below, and best of luck if you're riding with me on Thursday night.
Most online sportsbooks opened this point spread at Florida -5 on the look-ahead line on Sunday night. That was a little bit shocking to most people, especially since the Gators won by just two points against defending champ UConn in the second round.
Even more surprising was all of the sharp money that showed up on Florida. The Gators are now a 6.5-point favorite as of Monday afternoon. Are the sharps underestimating the dominance of Derik Queen?
All has been quiet so far on the total front. The line opened at 155 and that's where most online betting shops are still pricing it. Both of these teams play solid defense, so I'd lean toward the Under if I had to play the total.
Maryland survived by the skin of its teeth against Colorado State in the second round. The Terps needed a last-second bank shot from Derik Queen to earn a trip to the Sweet 16. As draining as that game was for Maryland, that's the kind of win that can carry a team for weeks.
The Terps offense begins and ends with Queen, a 6'10" freshman who leads the team in scoring and rebounding. Maryland is far from a one-man wrecking crew, though, as 5 players average 12 points or more per game.
Maryland's offense gets most of the attention, but their defense is pretty stellar in its own right. The Terps rank 6th in defensive efficiency and 31st in points allowed per game. It'll be interesting to see if they can contain Florida's stacked offense.
Florida was a 9.5-point favorite against UConn last Sunday, but they were lucky to sneak by Dan Hurley's Huskies. The Gators survived 77-75 thanks to some late hot shooting by Walter Clayton Jr., who wound up with 23 points to lead all scorers.
The Gators have some of the most impressive metrics in the country on both offense and defense. They rank 3rd in points scored and 5th in opponent effective field goal percentage. Clayton gets most of the hype, but Alex Condon and Alijah Martin are solid players in their own right.
Florida's depth is what impresses me, as they have seven players who get at least 19 minutes of playing time per game. Head coach Todd Golden does a phenomenal job of knowing who to go to on his bench for a spark.
I've faded Florida a few times this season and it's cost me a few units. That being said, my numbers say that this is way too many points to give a very talented Maryland team. I have the Gators as only a four-point favorite, so I'll gladly gobble up the 6.5 at almost even money.
Derik Queen may be a freshman, but he plays like a seasoned vet whose got something to prove. As good as Florida's defense is, I think they'll have a hard time keeping Queen, Gillespie, Reese, and Rice under wraps.
Maryland also ranks 88th in free throw percentage while Florida ranks just 195th. That could really hurt the Gators down the stretch. Let's bet on the Terps to keep this one close!
Maryland is 6-4 ATS in '24-25 against ranked opponents.
Maryland is 4-2 ATS as an underdog this season.
Maryland is 7-7 ATS in non-conference games this season.