Round 2 of the NCAA Tournament starts on Saturday, March 22nd and we can't wait for some of the matchups. This piece focuses on Michigan vs. Texas A&M, which should be a remarkable Big Ten vs. SEC duel.
A trip to the Sweet 16 will be on the line when these two powerhouse programs collide. After digging into all of the relevant metrics, I found a side and a player prop that I'm pretty fond of. Check those out below, and best of luck if you're riding with me on Saturday.
Most online sportsbooks opened this point spread at Texas A&M -1 on the look-ahead line on Thursday night. That was a little bit shocking to most people, especially since Michigan just won the Big Ten Tournament.
Even more surprising was all of the sharp money that showed up on A&M. The Aggies are now a 2.5-point favorite as of Friday morning. Are the sharps underestimating the dominance of the Wolverines' two big post players?
All has been quiet so far on the total front. The line opened at 140.5 and that's where most online betting shops are still pricing it. Both of these teams play solid defense, so I'd lean toward the Under if I had to play the total.
Michigan vs. Texas A&M: 5:15 ET • CBS
This one's a little juicier than I would like over at FanDuel, but Donaldson is one of the best facilitators in the Big Ten. Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf may get most of the attention, but Donaldson transferring in from Auburn has made a huge impact on this Michigan squad.
Donaldson's median assists number is 4 this season, so I think there's a little bit of value in this line, even at the -140 price. Factoring in some of Texas A&M's defensive weaknesses, I made this line 4.5 instead of 3.5.
Sure, the Aggies have a great defensive efficiency rating, but they rank just 279th in the nation in assists allowed per game. They also rank just 363rd in assists to field goals made ratio. I'll take a shot on Tre having a big day in the assists department.
Donaldson is 20-14 to the Under vs. this line in '24-25.
Donaldson has gone Over this line in 4 of his last 6 outings.
Donaldson usually gets at least 31 minutes of playing time.
This should be one of the tightest games of the day, but I'm rolling with Big Blue. Michigan is one of the hottest teams in the country and I don't see Texas A&M hanging with them for a full 40 minutes. The Aggies will have a hard time containing the Wolverines two big men.
Danny Wolf is 7 feet, and Vlad Goldin is 7'1". Texas A&M has some nice post players, but none of them are taller than 6'8". Don't tell me size doesn't matter!
Nobody really talks about Michigan's defense, but they've been playing with a lot more intensity the last couple of weeks. They rank 16th in opponent shooting efficiency and I think they can shut down the often-anemic A&M offense. Go Blue!
Michigan is 6-2 ATS in '24-25 as an underdog.
Michigan is 6-3 ATS in neutral-site games this season.
Michigan is 8-4 ATS in non-conference games this season.
Arkansas vs. St. John's: 2:40 ET • CBS
I don't understand this rebounding line over at FanDuel. Several other shops have this Over juiced in the -130 to -140 range and I personally made the line 8.5 for several reasons. Ejiofor is averaging 8 rebounds per game, but his median number is 9 this season.
The 6'9" forward should have a big game on the glass against Arkansas. The Johnnies rank 5th in overall rebounding while the Hogs rank just 142nd. St. John's is also 7th in offensive rebounding while Arkansas is 270th. Don't overthink this one. Take the Over!
Ejiofor is 23-12 to the Over this season
Ejiofor has gone Over this line in 6 of his last 10 outings.
Ejiofor is 11-6 to the Over in road/neutral games this year.