One of the final matchups for the NCAA Tournament’s opening round will feature two storied programs playing for the first time since the 2019 season with the No. 11 seed Xavier Musketeers (22-11) taking on the No. 6 seed Illinois Fighting Illini (21-12) on Friday night.
Xavier won their First Four matchup against Texas to earn this matchup against Illinois. The Musketeers have won eight of their last nine games to make the NCAA Tournament, recording an impressive win over Creighton during that span.
Illinois had a similar streak heading into the tournament, winning four straight games before Maryland eliminated the school from the Big Ten Conference Tournament. The Fighting Illini recorded wins over ranked conference opponents Michigan and Purdue during that stretch.
Which school will advance to the quarterfinals of the Midwest Region? We’ll cover that and our three favorite player prop bets for Friday’s game.
Sensational freshman Kasparas Jakucionis is powering the Illini’s offense this season. The 6-foot-6 guard is averaging team-best totals by recording 15.0 points and 4.6 assists each night. Additionally, he’s averaging 5.6 rebounds per game.
In six of the past seven games, Jakucionis has been held to fewer than 15 points. Those games were against some of the best teams in the nation, showing that Illini’s top scorer struggles when faced with strong defensive guards. Expect Xavier’s pressure defense will cause problems for Illinois, keeping Jakucionis from covering this player prop bet.
Xavier’s unquestioned team leader is 6-foot-9 senior Zach Freemantle. The forward is scoring a team-best 17.2 points per game while leading the Musketeers with 7.0 rebounds as well. Fremantle is hitting 52.4 percent of his shots, a stat among the top 70 nationally this season.
For two straight games, Fremantle has been held under his season averages in both points and rebounds. Those games were against tournament teams, and opponents forced other players to score for Xavier. Expect the Illini to follow a similar path, keeping the forward from covering this player prop bet.
The European influence is visible with Illinois this year. In addition to Jakucionis, the Illini rely on sophomore big Tomislav Ivisic. The team’s starting center is recording 12.5 points and 7.7 rebounds per game for the Fighting Illini.
Ivisic will be the biggest player on the court tonight when Illinois takes on Xavier. Expect the 7-foot-1 player to use his height advantage in the paint, easily recording seven rebounds to cover this player prop bet.
Since 1985, no double-digit seed has had more success in the tournament than the No. 11 seeds. Heading into this year’s event, 11-seeded teams had 61 total victories, winning nearly two out of every five games played in this opening-round matchup. That makes picking Illinois or Xavier a risky wager compared to taking the over on the total points scored bet.
Coming into the tournament, these teams are both averaging over 78 points per game this season. The Fighting Illini are leading that charge with 83.8 points per contest, and Illinois has scored at least 80 points in all four wins preceding their tournament berth. Xavier has scored over 80 points in four of their past five games, giving bettors confidence in this wager.