5 vs 12 upsets are ‘in’ but be aware when picking upsets against Oregon and Memphis, who have the shooting and star power to run both Liberty and Colorado State out of the gym.
In an 8/9 matchup, take the more talented Baylor Bears to come out on top with their duo of VJ Edgecombe and Norchad Omier in Friday’s action.
The Bears come into the NCAA Tournament as near afterthoughts, barely getting through their Big 12 season with a 10-10 record. With that being said, Scott Drew is still one of the top coaches in the nation, and behind the duo of VJ Edgecombe and Norchad Omier (30+ PPG), the Bears are my favorites to advance in this game.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs went 8-10 in SEC play and were probably the most inconsistent team down the stretch of this season, winning 4 of their last 9 games by ten or more points, and losing two games by 12 and 38 points respectively.
Baylor is the more talented squad with a higher offensive upside. In the 8/9 battle, I’m going with the better offensive squad in this region. The Bulldogs’ 31.4% 3PT is also extremely alarming.
This isn’t the sexiest pick, but if you need a parlay booster, Oregon and Dana Altman are your friends. The Ducks have never been first-round outs under Altman and nearly entered the Sweet 16 last season on an unexpected March run.
In their first season in the Big 10, Oregon stood their ground and I believe are ready to make a big splash in this tournament. This game is in Seattle which means the Ducks will play two home games before a potential matchup with Duke. Looking at this matchup, Oregon is led by the duo of Jackson Shelstad and Nate Bittle.
This will simply be too much for a Liberty team that doesn’t defend the ball too well in the paint. Also, Liberty’s horrific 66.1% FT makes them an early out in my book and ruins their Cinderella chances.
Going against the 5/12 upset grain here, Memphis is a scrappy squad that experts are writing off. The Tigers had the 4th toughest non-conference strength of schedule and still finished the year 29-5 under Penny Hardaway.
Even if they are without guard Tyrese Hunter, the Tigers’ P.J. Haggerty is a certified bucket-getter, averaging 21.8 PPG which included a 42-point outing in the opening round of their conference tournament. Yes, Colorado State is a fun team to bet on and root for, but we have seen this story with them.
One frontcourt star and a bunch of lower-tier players. David Roddy a few years back. Isaiah Stevens last year. And now, Nique Clifford. This game will go down to the wire, but Memphis is the more athletic and complete squad that will come out victorious.