March has officially arrived and with it comes possibly the best post-season event in all of sports. March Madness is a 3-week tournament that always brings some chaos and a ton of fun with all the bracket challenges.
So, whether you are looking to win a few bucks or just have bragging rights over your friends, I’ll break down 5 tips for filling out your March Madness bracket.
While March Madness is characterized by its explosive upsets and chaos, it still stands true that the best teams win, and usually the best teams are seeded higher.
Going back to 2014, teams that are seeded higher than their opponents are 458-201, or 69.5%. While we will certainly break down tips for how to predict the upsets, just remember that good teams find a way. 13 of the last 17 Champions have been a 1 seed.
There are always explosive upsets early in the tournament that blow up people's brackets. One of the most famous ones is the classic, 5-seed vs 12-seed upset. Just last year we saw 2 12-seeds win in the first round. An example from last year was 12-seed James Madison, who defeated Wisconsin in round 1.
The Dukes were 31-3 heading into the tournament but were seeded low due to their small market conference. Make sure to do your research and find those diamonds in the rough. One matchup I like is McNeese State over Clemson. The Cowboys had 5 losses before the New Year, but since January they are 19-1.
I know I said earlier that seeds hold value, and that is true. However, all of the number 1 seeds don’t always make the Final Four. The only that happened was in 2008. And 3 1 Seeds have made the Final Four only 5 times. You always need to mix in a few 2, 3, and 4 seeds to make a run.
A team like Michigan State, which has a legendary Coach in Tom Izzo, seems primed to make a run this season. Or maybe Tennessee who has been good all year and could benefit if the one seed in their Bracket, Houston, continues to struggle with injuries.
While most of the time it is fun to pick a Cinderella team to go on an amazing run, it really isn’t worth it if you are looking to win.
Since 1985 only 15 teams seeded 8 or lower have made the Final Four. It may bust your bracket if it happens, but the likelihood of someone correctly choosing that Cinderella is just as slim as it actually happening.
For most bracket challenges they are broken down by points, with each round accounting for more points as you close in on the Championship Game. This means that even if you only get 8 of the Sweet 16 teams correct, and half of the Final Four, you still have a chance if you get the National Championship correct.
Pick your upsets early but really focus on those later rounds to ensure you have the best chance at getting the National Championship right.