Monday was one of those weird nights in March when there was no college basketball on TV. As strange as it was, it gave me the chance to break down Wednesday night's marquee matchup in the First Four between Xavier and Texas. The winner will get a date with the Illinois Fighting Illini on Friday, March 21st.
Get our top player prop for this battle between the Musketeers and Longhorns below! Enjoy your Wednesday, fellow sports investors. Let's put our best bet in the win column. We'll see you back on Thursday!
Most online sportsbooks opened this point spread at Xavier -1.5 on the look-ahead line on Sunday night. That was a little bit shocking to most people, especially since Texas now plays in the mighty SEC.
Even more surprising was all of the sharp money that showed up on Xavier. The Musketeers are now a 3-point favorite as of Tuesday morning. Are the sharps underestimating the Longhorns' strength schedule?
All has been quiet so far on the total front. The line opened at 149.5 and that's where most online betting shops are still pricing it. Neither team has a ton of defensive prowess, so we could see some points in this one.
The Musketeers have had one of the top offenses in the nation the entire season, as they rank 6th in three-point percentage and 8th in free throw percentage. Xavier's hot shooting is the main reason why they've won four out of their last five contests.
Xavier's offense runs through the 2-headed monster of Ryan Conwell and Zach Freemantle. Conwell knocks down a ton of shots from beyond the arc, while Freemantle is the Musketeers' top post player. The dynamic duo combines for more than 34 points per game for Xavier.
Xavier's defense is a bit of a mystery. They rank a respectable 71st in defensive efficiency but just 187th at defending threes. That could be a problem against soon-to-be NBA lottery pick Tre Johnson of Texas.
The Longhorns played themselves into the Big Dance by winning two games in the SEC Tournament. However, one of those wins took a ton out of them, as they needed double OT to get by archrival Texas A&M.
Texas put up a good fight against Tennessee the next day, but you have to wonder if their legs have fully recovered from that tough scheduling spot. The aforementioned Tre Johnson leads the Horns in points, as he averages nearly 20 per game. He gets a lot of help from Arthur Kaluma (12.4 ppg) and Jordan Pope (11.2 ppg).
Like Xavier, Texas is a bit of an anomaly on the defensive end of the floor. The Longhorns rank 136th in efficiency but a very solid 50th in two-point defense. That tells me that they have the tools to limit Freemantle down low on the block.
Xavier vs. Texas: 9:10 ET • Wednesday, March 19 • truTV
I have to tip my hat to the sportsbooks on this one. They've done a really good job of pricing most of the player props for this First Four tilt. I couldn't find anything in the points, assists, or three-pointers markets.
That being said, I like Kaluma to have a big game on the glass for Texas. The 6'7" forward averages 7.6 rebounds per game, so I was shocked that we're getting 6.5 on this line at reduced juice. He's also gone over this number of rebounds in 19 of his 28 contests this season.
The matchup also heavily favors an Over for Kaluma. Texas ranks 118th in overall rebounding while Xavier ranks just 239th. The Horns should also have a nice edge on the offensive glass (152nd to 344th). Let's play Kaluma Over the 6.5 boards. Good luck, my friends!
Final Score Prediction: Texas 75 - Xavier 74