Happy Thursday, sports betting family! Hump Day was a so-so afternoon for us on the college hardwood, as our player props went 1-1 to run our record to 54-46 on the season. That brings our overall profit down to +1.35 units.
Collin Murray-Boyles of South Carolina was an absolute beast on the boards against Arkansas yesterday. He got us to the payout window by easily going over his rebounding total of 6.5. The Razorbacks blew a huge lead but were able to hang on for the W.
Our lone loser was on AJ Hoggard of Vandy, who finished with only 3 assists against a scrappy Texas defense. The former Michigan State star made plenty of crisp passes to open shooters, but the 'Dores just couldn't make enough shots to get Hoggard more assists.
All in all, though, it was pretty cool to watch our bets play out in person yesterday. I'm back in the office today and found a few more plays for today's conference tournament games. Let's cash 'em!
Butler at St. John's: Noon ET • Peacock
The plus money that's being offered on this line confuses me. I get that Bizjack has been taking more shots lately, but I'm not sure that a 2.5-point increase over his median of 8 is warranted. The 6'4" guard could have a tough time scoring in what will be a de facto home game for St. John's.
The Johnnies have one of the top defenses in the country, as they rank 3rd in defensive efficiency and 9th in two-point defense. All that to say: this will be a very difficult matchup for Bizjack and this Butler offense.
Lastly, St. John's has already contained Bizjack pretty well on two other occasions this season. They held him to 8 points on February 26th and only 6 points on January 4th. Give me an Under to get this Thursday party started!
Bizjack is 18-13 to the Under vs. this line in '24-25.
Bizjack has gone Under this line in 12 of 20 conference games.
Bizjack is 3-2 to the Under vs. this line over his last 5 games.
North Carolina vs. Wake Forest: 2:30 pm ET • ESPN
Lubin has been getting a few more minutes lately, but this line has gotten way out of hand. The 6'8" forward has plenty of game, but he could struggle a little bit against this stingy Wake Forest defense.
The Demon Deacons rank 47th in defensive efficiency and 19th in opponent shooting percentage. Those numbers make me think that Lubin is unlikely to find many open looks in today's rivalry game in Charlotte.
Lubin's median point total this season is only 7. Even with the aforementioned increase in playing time, I think a 4.5-point adjustment upwards is way too much. Give me another ugly Under!
Lubin is 27-6 to the Under vs. this line in '24-25.
Lubin has gone Under this line in 17 of 18 road/neutral games.
Lubin is 3-2 to the Under vs. this line over his last 5 games.
Texas vs. Texas A&M: 3:30 pm ET • SEC Network
Don't worry Over bettors... I didn't leave you out on this thrilling Thursday! This line makes zero sense in my humble opinion. I get that Wade Taylor IV is the main man of this Aggies offense, but Phelps has lots of scoring ability in his own right.
Phelps has a median point total of 14 this season, so getting plus money on over 12.5 seems like a bargain price to me. The 6'3" guard scored 18 points against this same Longhorns defense back on January 4th.
Texas has an okay defense, but their metrics aren't exactly earth-shattering. The Horns rank 143rd in points allowed and 144th in 3-point defense. Phelps should cruise over this point total, especially since Texas could be a bit gassed from playing yesterday afternoon.
Phelps is 19-11 to the Over vs. this line in '24-25.
Phelps has gone Over this line in 8 of 14 road/neutral games.
Phelps is 5-1 to the Over vs. this line over his last 5 games.