Happy Friday, sports betting friends! Thursday was a terrible night for us on the college hardwood, as our player props went 0-3 to run our record to 44-39 on the season. That brings our overall profit down to -1.31 units.
Suffering through a reverse sweep is never easy, but it's part of the deal in this crazy business known as sports betting. I was especially shocked that neither of our Overs hit last night. Kaleb Glenn had plenty of open looks for Florida Atlantic, but he just couldn't get anything going against North Texas after sinking an early three-pointer.
The real dagger though was our loss by the hook on Dylan Harper. The Rutgers stellar freshman finished with 17 points in a tough loss against Michigan. It's time to shake it off, move on, and start a new winning streak. Enjoy the college hoops action, folks!
Most online sportsbooks opened this point spread at Purdue -5 on the lookahead line yesterday. Even with 59% of tickets coming in on UCLA, the line has shifted to Purdue -5.5. We're still several hours before tip-off, but that's an early sign that the sharps are leaning toward the Boilermakers.
The total has seen a little bit of movement as well. The line opened at 140 but is now sitting in the 139 to 139.5 range at most of the prominent betting shops in the country. The move towards the Under makes a lot of sense, especially when you factor in how stingy UCLA has been on the defensive end of the floor this season.
UCLA at Purdue: 8:00 PM EST (FOX)
This line is a bit of a head-scratcher! Bilodeau is the best scorer on this Bruins squad and I'm expecting a rather large game from him in this tough road game. The 6'9" forward can beat people either in the post or from beyond the arc, which should help him get at least 12 points tonight.
Bilodeau's median point total this season is 15, so I'm more than a bit shocked that FanDuel made a 3.5-point adjustment downward. Purdue has struggled on the defensive end of the floor for several weeks in a row. The Boilers rank just 338th in two-point defense and just 170th in defensive efficiency.
My main concern with this play is that Bilodeau only averages about 28 minutes of playing time per game. However, I expect him to play a little bit more than that tonight with UCLA being 5-point road underdogs. Check out some other positive trends for the Over below!
Bilodeau is 18-9 to the Over vs. this line in '24-25.
Bilodeau has gone Over this total in 3 of his last 4 outings.
Bilodeau has gone Over this line in 7 of his 11 road or neutral-court games this year.
Purdue has a phenomenal home-court advantage, but they've been in awful form of late. The Boilers have lost four in a row and just got beat by their in-state rival Indiana last Sunday. Trey Kaufman-Renn, Purdue's star forward, only mustered 9 points in that defeat.
UCLA got a nice win over Ohio State last Sunday but their loss to Minnesota back on February 18th was definitely a shocker. However, the Bruins are a deep basketball team, and I think they'll cover the spread in this Big Ten battle.