3 Betting Trends to Consider for the 2024 NCAA Tournament

We dig into 3 actionable betting trends that could help you profit during March Madness!
One of our top betting trends for the 2024 NCAA Tournament points us towards New Mexico in Round 1.
One of our top betting trends for the 2024 NCAA Tournament points us towards New Mexico in Round 1.

The 2024 NCAA Tournament is finally here and college hoops fans around the country couldn’t be more excited. This is especially true since online sports betting is now legal in 38 states. Avid college basketball fanatics can now plunk down a few bucks on their favorite teams to add a little more pizzazz to an already exciting time of year.

Need help betting on the 2024 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament? You’ve come to the right spot! We’ve spent loads of hours researching the following 3 betting trends to consider for this year’s edition of March Madness. Best of luck with your wagers!

Big 12 Teams are 25-14 ATS in the First Round Since 2017

Seasoned college basketball bettors know that some conferences are just much deeper than others in most years. This has been especially true of late in the Big 12, which will have 8 teams representing their conference in 2024. Teams competing in the Big 12 are used to facing steep competition on most nights once conference play rolls around.

What does this mean for bettors? It means they should take a hard look at Big 12 teams in the first round since they’ll often be facing teams that don’t have a formidable strength of schedule. A 39-game sample size isn’t large enough to just blindly bet every Big 12 squad on Thursday and Friday, but a 64% ATS trend is worth paying attention to.

Our favorite bet for this trend is Texas Tech -4.5 over NC State over at BetRivers. Sure, the Wolfpack just disposed of both UNC and Duke on their way to an ACC Tournament title. However, this Red Raiders squad is no joke and all five of their starters average at least 10.5 points per game.

No. 11 Seeds are 24-16 ATS vs. No. 6 Seeds Since 2014

While No. 12 seeds seem to get most of the hype from the mass media during March Madness, it’s the No. 11 seeds that have been a better investment from an ATS standpoint. Not only have 24 of the last 40 No. 11 seeds covered the spread, but 20 out of those 40 No. 11 seeds won outright. That means you may consider sprinkling a little something on the moneyline if the No. 11 seed you’re betting on is an underdog.

Last season, the No. 11 seed Pittsburgh Panthers smoked the No. 6 seed Iowa State Cyclones to the tune of 59-41 as 4-point underdogs. Bettors who backed the Panthers at +170 laughed all the way to the bank. No. 11 seed Arizona State also covered the spread quite easily against No. 6 seed TCU, although they didn’t win outright.

Our favorite bet for this trend is New Mexico -2 over Clemson over at DraftKings. Sure, Clemson had a nice season at 21-11 but they aren’t nearly as deep as this New Mexico squad. The Lobos just took home the Mountain West Tournament title and they’re feeling more than just a little bit disrespected in this spot. Lay the small number!

Since 1979, No. 1 Seeds Have Won the NCAA Title 59% of the Time

Yes, we know that everyone loves March Madness because of the feel-good Cinderella stories, but try to put those thoughts out of your mind when betting on who will win the entire NCAA Tournament. While there are always a few upsets during the Round of 64, chalk tends to reign supreme from the Elite Eight on.

That means for this season, folks should consider all of the No. 1 seeds. Teams like UConn (+475 at DraftKings), Houston (+600 at FanDuel), Purdue (+750 at Caesars), and North Carolina (+1700 at FanDuel) are all worth a look.

Our favorite bet for this trend is Purdue. This team will be on a mission after last year’s first-round loss to Fairleigh-Dickinson. The last No.1 to lose to a No. 16 was Virginia, and they ended up winning the title the following season. UConn may be the best overall team, but they got placed in the toughest region. Give me the Boilers and Zach Edey to cut down the nets this year.

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