Ochai Agbaji Out
Jakob Poeltl Out
RJ Barrett Out
Luka Doncic Out
Marcus Smart Out
The Toronto boogeyman is back as LeBron returns once again to the East. With both teams riding high into this game, it’s shaping up to be a competitive matchup. Unfortunately, we’ll be missing a few key players in Doncic, Barrett, and Poeltl, but that might just even out the talent even more.
The Raptors have been an interesting, yet tricky team to get a pulse on. They have some star power in Ingram and Barnes, but it’s mainly their collection of role players that’s kept this team moving. Guys like Quickley, Dick, and Murray-Boyles have brought an interesting flair to the team. While somewhat limited, they all seem to have their nights. This team has been about stepping up, and from the bench to the stars, they have. There’s a certain level of cohesion that’s impressive. They trust each other, move in transition in unison, and ultimately, have each other’s backs. It’s one of the more connected teams I’ve seen play this year. That’s not to say they don’t have issues. Defensively, they can be very prone to fouling. They’re averaging 22 fouls a game, sending players to the line 26 times per game. While part of that is just their fast-paced style of defense, they do leap a lot in the paint, and against the Lakers, that’s going to be an issue.
The Lakers have been well ahead of schedule this season, especially with LeBron missing some time. Now that he’s back, the team is dominant on offense. The defensive aspect could still improve, but they’re winning, so there’s not much to complain about. Their biggest strength, like most Lakers teams, has been their ability to get to the free throw line. They’re averaging 28 attempts per game from the line, while taking only 82 shots per game. Their offense essentially depends on consistently getting to the line, and they do just that. Reaves is going to be the main threat for that tonight. While Luka is a master at drawing free throws, Reaves isn’t far behind. He’s averaging 9 free throw attempts per game, which will put Toronto in a tough spot.
The matchup in general is going to be a tough one for Toronto. They love to run at a fast pace, and the Lakers just slow everything down. They run primarily through isolation a lot, and are mainly looking to get to the line. The Raptors are going to have to play disciplined defense to have a chance. Where Toronto can find an advantage is through their size on defense. They’re big enough to play the Lakers straight up, and if they can turn defense into offense, they’ll be in a good place. While the Lakers are going to be tough, I think Toronto has the advantage tonight. At home, a couple of days of rest, and no Luka against them should give them an edge. That’s why I’m taking the Toronto moneyline, the over on the 228.5 points total, and the -2.5 Toronto spread.
Money line: LAL (+120) / TOR (-142)
Total Points: 228.5
Spread: +2.5 LAL (-110) / -2.5 TOR (-110)
Reaves is back in the driver's seat today with Luka on the bench. During Luka’s last absence, Reaves performed well offensively. With full control of the ball and LeBron alongside him, scoring shouldn’t be a problem. Although the Toronto defense has been decent lately, losing Poeltl for this game will weaken their interior defense. Since Toronto is already near the top of the league for sending players to the line, with 26 opponent attempts per game, Reaves will likely continue to get those free throws tonight.
Rebounds have become a bit harder for Ayton to secure with LeBron back. While Luka has been his main competitor in the stats, LeBron is a great rebounder who usually pulls down at least 6 per night. Meanwhile, Toronto is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the league. Ayton probably won't get many easy boards tonight, which will likely affect his overall numbers.
While Barnes isn’t a major three-point shooter, he’s been hitting lately. This season, he’s shooting 42% from three on about 3.5 attempts per game. Although the volume is low, it has increased recently, following solid shooting nights against New York and Portland. He’s definitely no Curry out there, but with plus money on the 2+ made threes, there is value.
LeBron's playmaking has been one of his best assets as he’s aged in the league. He’s incredible at finding open teammates and moving the ball. However, I don’t think tonight will be a standout night for him assist-wise. The Raptors are decent at limiting ball movement with their length, while the Lakers are down their top scorer in Luka. Especially with the line set at 7.5, 8 assists seems like a lot considering how much time Reaves will have the ball too. The under looks like a safer bet tonight.