Isaiah Livers Out
Ryan Dunn Probable
Jalen Green Out
Marcus Smart Questionable
LeBron James Questionable
Deandre Ayton Questionable
The Suns are on the road again tonight in LA, taking on the Lakers during a hot streak. Their schedule has been brutal lately, with back-to-back games against OKC and Denver. Despite the challenges, the Suns are trying to keep the wins coming. They’re still at an impressive 12-9, but tonight could be huge for their momentum either way.
Phoenix has experienced an interesting turnaround lately. After the failed super team disbanded, they are now mainly relying on Booker to keep the team afloat. While he has been doing a decent job, several players have stepped up. Mark Williams and Dillon Brooks have been crucial in strengthening the team's defense. They have managed to make Phoenix not just an average defense but a solid one. With Ryan Dunn added to the mix, this group has the defensive skills they lacked last year. Overall, the team is well balanced on both ends. Booker still leads offensively, but Gillespie has taken a significant step this year. He is scoring, playmaking, and shooting extremely well to keep the team competitive. This is not just a fleeting moment; this group is genuinely good.
The Lakers, on the other hand, are all about that star power. Luka has been at a different level so far, averaging 35 points a game. With his now partner in crime, Austin Reaves, taking a big leap forward this year, this tandem is unstoppable. They’ve only lost four games this season despite some early-season injuries. Now that they’re 90% of the way back to full health, this group doesn’t look like they’re slowing down. They play an interesting style of basketball, too. Relying heavily on iso plays with Luka and Reaves, this team takes only 82 shot attempts per game, last in the NBA. This group is plotting, doesn’t move the ball much, and lives at the free-throw line. The Lakers are only behind the Magic in terms of free-throw attempts per game, at nearly 30 a night. Defensively, though, this group is better than expected. They’re not great, but Marcus Smart and Rui Hachimura have kept it respectable.
Overall, this looks to be an interesting game. The Suns' defense appears dangerous for the Lakers. They have the personnel to match LA’s guards and the size down low to keep them out of the paint. However, the Lakers simply have too much offensive firepower. Especially with LeBron back, this team can get any shot they want, and most likely get to the line. The Suns just don’t have the scoring efficiency to keep pace with the Lakers unless Booker is on fire. Still, this should be a close game. I don’t expect the Lakers to run away with it. That’s why I’m picking the Lakers moneyline, the Over on the 234.5 points total, and the Phoenix spread at +4.5.
Money line: PHO (+164) / LAL (-198)
Total Points: 234.5
Spread: +4.5 PHO (-105) / -4.5 LAL (-115)
Luka continues to dominate on the scoreboard. Averaging 35 points a game, the line set at 33 seems a bit low. Since Luka hasn’t been below this line in six straight games, he’s been electric lately. Especially with a middle-of-the-road defense on Phoenix, Luka should be able to get to his spot all night.
Gillespie continues to be a surprise on this Phoenix team. Coming into the season with an average of under 5 points per game, he’s increased his offense to 12. With the extra production, his playing time has skyrocketed recently. He’s now approaching 30 minutes per game, and against defenses like the Lakers, he’s been able to create plays as well. He’s already averaging 5 assists per game, and tonight should see him get plenty of time on the court again.
Williams has made a huge impact for the Suns this year. His presence inside continues to keep the paint open and helps clean up rebounds. He’s averaging 9 or more boards per game now, with a strong streak of games over 9 boards. The main challenge for Williams will be avoiding foul trouble. As long as he can play around 30 minutes tonight, he should be in a good position to go over again.
Bookers have never been known as a defender in the league. He’s not terrible, but against the Lakers, he’s probably going to get beaten by their backcourt. However, because the Lakers play a lot of isolation, I don’t see a lot of opportunities for Booker to get steals tonight. He’s been good in the passing lanes, but if he’s facing the ball handler, he’s probably not tipping the ball away tonight. The under is looking decent with some plus odds attached.