Robert Williams Questionable
Jerami Grant Probable
Shaedon Sharpe Questionable
Jrue Holiday Questionable
Scoot Henderson Out
Blake Wesley Out
Matisse Thybulle Out
Damian Lillard Out
Buddy Hield Probable
Janathan Kuminga Out
Draymond Green Probable
Jimmy Butler Probable
De’Anthony Melton Out
We’re back for the second matchup between Portland and Golden State. In that first game, Portland surprisingly crushed the Warriors in a blowout. However, with several injuries on Portland and playing on the road, the outcome might be different this time.
The Warriors have been fairly average. They’ve struggled with some injuries, but that’s expected for one of the oldest teams in the league. Tonight, it looks like nearly everyone will suit up. Even with everyone playing, they'll need to be on point. With Portland’s defense struggling lately, the roster still has plenty of strong defenders. Considering the scoring issues the Warriors have had, they’ll need to strike early. Defense is where the Warriors can excel in this game. Portland is currently very thin on playmakers, leading to lots of isolation ball and turnovers. Since the Warriors are near the top in steals and forcing opponent turnovers, they should be able to create some mistakes for Portland. The duo of Green and Butler continues to be solid on defense. The biggest challenge will be defending the paint, where they’re currently allowing 51 points per game. Since Portland scores most of their points inside, the Warriors will need to crash early on defense, clog the lanes, and force Portland to shoot beyond the arc. If they can do that and control the pace, they should have a strong chance to win.
For Portland, it’s about overcoming their own struggles. They rank near the top of the league in turnovers and fouls, while sitting near the bottom in assists per game. A large part of that is due to injuries and limited playmaking, but it’s also related to their scheme. The offense relies heavily on taking a lot of threes. They lead the league in three-point attempts but shoot only 32% from beyond the arc. It’s a system born out of desperation, trying to keep them afloat through brute force. Although it hasn’t been working recently, with Portland on a losing streak, they remain a dangerous team. This group can catch fire at any moment. In their last game against the Bulls, they went on a 30-7 run in the fourth quarter to come back before ultimately losing on a buzzer-beater. They can surprise you as soon as you let your guard down. To have a chance in this game, they need to attack inside. Avdija has already been excellent at that, and Portland should have size inside with Clingan. They’ll need to use that size and push the pace in transition to avoid their struggling half-court offense. If they can do that and play tough defense, they should keep this game close.
Ultimately, this matchup will come down to Portland’s health. If they manage to get Holiday back and have Sharpe, this team looks completely different. However, if one or both are still out, it will be hard to generate enough offense to beat the Warriors. With Curry still on fire, Butler’s ability to score inside or at the line, and Green shutting down the paint, it’s tough. That’s why I’m going with the Warriors’ moneyline, the under on the 237.5 points total, and Portland at +8.5.
Money line: POR (+260) / GSW (-325)
Total Points: 237.5
Spread: +8.5 POR (-120) / -8.5 GSW (+100)
Clingan has put together a couple of solid scoring games recently. He’s looking more aggressive and comfortable around the rim. That’s not too surprising considering he’s 7’2 and has won two NCAA national championships doing that. However, facing the Warriors should give him a good chance to use his size to his advantage. In their last game against the Warriors, he played well, scoring 14 points in just 22 minutes. With Al Horford being inconsistent on the Warriors' lineup, it leaves Quinten Post and Trayce Jackson-Davis to cover the middle. Clingan should have plenty of space to operate.
Grant remains one of Portland's key players. His ability to hit threes and iso plays has kept the bench unit stable when Avdija is off the court. With Portland facing some injuries already, Grant is likely to log over 30 minutes again. Especially if Sharpe is out again, Grant's shooting numbers should improve. Considering he’s averaging nearly 20 points per game and scored 22 in Portland’s last matchup against the Warriors, the over looks promising.
The Warriors are going to need some help tonight. With Kuminga sidelined, they’ll need someone to pick up the slack. Even with Moody’s inconsistent scoring, Portland is the kind of team he can find points against. He’s decent at slipping past defenders off the ball and finding his way to high-quality shots. While his three-point shooting has improved, it’s feast or famine with him. But considering he’ll likely see an uptick in shots tonight with Kuminga gone, the over is looking tempting.
Butler has been the main focus for shot creation on the team. While Green and Curry have performed well, Butler's ability to move the ball out of the high post or drive to the basket will be crucial. Portland often brings help defense, leaving perfect opportunities for the Warriors' offense to attack. Butler is excellent at finding angles and hitting open teammates. Especially if the Warriors go small, Butler should be able to make things happen.