Scoot Henderson out
Jrue Holiday Doubtful
Blake Welsey Out
Matisse Thybulle Out
Damian Lillard out
Grayson Allen Out
Jalen Green Out
The Suns are on the road, leaving the warmth of the desert for the rainy hills of the Pacific Northwest in Portland. However, the Suns are hoping to bring some of the heat with them as they’ve been playing well lately. They just ended their winning streak on Sunday against Atlanta. The team is sitting at 8-6 on the year, which is solid for a team right after a blowup. Portland has been lukewarm at best lately. Their last road trip was a disaster, going only 1-4 over that stretch. Early injuries are impacting the backcourt, leaving Portland without a playmaker. However, they still remain a dangerous team.
Portland isn’t going to be a pushover for Phoenix tonight. Even though this isn’t the team at their best, Portland’s size will be an issue. Without Holiday, they’re mainly running out four forwards and a center. While this group is limited offensively, it actually gives them a strong defense when everything clicks. With Phoenix missing some scorers in Allen and Green, the entire scoring load will fall on Booker. Although he’s been great this year, it will be a tough game as Portland will likely press him the whole time. If Portland can wear Booker down and force the ball out of his hands, they’ll have a good chance tonight. The biggest problem for Portland is scoring. They’ve shot terribly from beyond the arc this year and rely on iso ball to get points. While Avdija, Grant, and Sharpe have been effective at it, it still limits them against Phoenix’s defense. They will need to depend heavily on transition offense to keep the score close.
For Phoenix, they’ll need to attack Portland’s weak interior. While the Blazers have been excellent at forcing opponents outside, they’ve been poor at protecting the paint. Teams are shooting nearly 50% from the field against them. Considering Booker’s shooting struggles from deep, he’ll need to exploit their weak interior defense and attack the paint. If he can do that, and the on-ball defense holds up with Brooks and Dunn, they should be able to pull ahead. The only concern I have for the Suns is their defense. Although Portland is short at guard, the size of their wings will pose a challenge for Phoenix’s already thin frontcourt. If any starters get into early foul trouble, it could open things up for Portland and give them an advantage. Seeing how well Portland has been able to get to the line this year makes me a bit skeptical about the Suns’ chances tonight.
This matchup probably comes down to scoring. Portland has been a feast-or-famine team from beyond the arc, and that will likely determine the game. If they shoot 20% from three again, I doubt the Suns will have any trouble running away with it. Still, I think Portland has the edge tonight. With size and solid defenders to challenge Booker, they should be able to keep this game under control. As long as they don’t shoot themselves out of it, I believe they’ll win. That’s why I’m taking the Blazers moneyline, the over on the 236.5 points, and the -2.5 spread on Portland.
Money line: PHO (+120) / POR (-142)
Total Points: 236.5
Spread: +2.5 PHO (-105) / -2.5 POR (-115)
Clingan’s role in Portland has been somewhat confusing so far. He's extremely versatile at the position, but the fact that their best offensive sets are small ball has made Clingan’s scoring role unusual. Most games, he’s stuck on the perimeter taking shots from three. When he does get into the paint, Portland rarely uses him, and his only successful attempts at the rim usually come off offensive rebounds. With all but four games this season under this line, the under is looking great at nearly even money.
Sharpe has been on a tear recently. He’s averaging 26 points a game in November so far, with multiple 30-point games. That’s even with the three-ball not falling well. He’s been doing most of his work in the paint and mid-range, which is where he’s most comfortable. With his shot volume skyrocketing, especially with Holiday out, he had 32 attempts against the Mavericks. He’s averaging nearly 20 shots a game, and tonight will be no different. Especially with a weak defensive backcourt in Phoenix, this should be another game he excels in!
Booker has been a major reason the Suns are currently 8-6 this season. He’s essentially been their entire offense. Averaging nearly 30 points a game and ranking high in shot attempts per game, he’s a key contributor. However, tonight will be a tough game for him. Portland has strong on-ball defenders like Avdija, Camara, and Grant, plus Clingan at the rim. Since Booker’s three-point shot has not been landing lately, it’s going to be difficult for him to find space inside the arc tonight.
Williams' rebounding numbers have been inconsistent, but against Portland, they’ll need him. We’ve seen his workload gradually increase this year as he’s nearly averaging 30 minutes per game. Considering Portland shoots a lot and has one of the worst shooting percentages in the league, Williams should get plenty of rebound opportunities. Looking at Portland’s size and their need to score inside, Williams will need to be on the court all night, which should give him everything he needs to hit the over on this line.