Jalen Brunson Out
OG Anunoby Out
Kevin McCullar Jr Day to Day
Bam Adebayo Out
Tyler Herro Out
Terry Rozier Out
The Knicks and Heat are back at it this Monday after a tight game on Friday. The Knicks managed to win that one, but now that the Knicks are in Miami, will the script flip? Hard to say, with Jordan Poole, Jalen Brunson, OG Anunoby, and Bam out. With both teams missing key pieces, we’ll see who steps up tonight in this East Coast rematch.
The Knicks this year have been about where we expected. Sitting at 8-4 on the season so far, they’ve been one of the best in the East. Their offense has been cooking too. They’re right in the same ballpark as Miami in terms of scoring, averaging 122 points per game. Defensively, they’ve been solid too, allowing only 115 points per game from their opponents. It’s been encouraging, but with Brunson out, the hierarchy of the team does shift. Towns was able to pick up most of the workload against Miami with 39 points, but we’ll see if that’s sustainable. Beyond Towns, the backcourt has been interesting with no Brunson. Hart continues to be the Swiss Army knife moving the ball, driving, and running the offense. More surprisingly, though, was Landry Shamet coming up big off the bench. He dropped 36 on fantastic shooting. That’s not likely a performance you can expect out of him again against Miami tonight, but he’s shown he’s still got it. Overall, this team is injured but still talented. Bridges, Towns, and Hart should be enough to keep the wheels spinning even on the road tonight.
Looking at the Heat, they’ve actually been somewhat of a surprise. They’ve looked solid these first few weeks. With Powell settling in nicely, we haven’t seen this team at full strength with Poole in. In the meantime, Bam has returned to his All-Star form, and with loads of long, rangy wings, this team has been frustrating to play against. Much of their success this year comes down to the insane pace they run. They’re leading the league in points per game at 125, while being in the top 5 in shots per game. They love to run the floor too. With so many athletes out there, when they get into their transition offense, someone is going for a dunk. They’re also holding teams to some of the lowest shooting efficiency in the league. Teams are only shooting 43.8% from the field, and nearly 32% from three.
Overall, this matchup will depend on how well the Knicks control the ball. Miami is a fast, tough team that isn't afraid to share the ball. Their teamwork makes them a tough opponent, especially at home. However, I think the Knicks will pull it out again. The combination of Mitchell Robinson and Towns was too much for Ware last time, and I see that being a problem again tonight. If the Knicks can exploit their size again, they should be able to limit Miami in transition and on the boards. That’s why I’m betting on the Knicks moneyline, the over on the 244.5 points total, and the New York spread at +1.5.
Money line: NYK (+105) / MIA (-125)
Total Points: 244.5
Spread: +1.5 NYK (-105) / -1.5 MIA (-115)
Powell continues to lead in scoring for Miami. With Poole and Bam out again tonight, he’ll need to take charge offensively. He’s been effective too, with several 30+ point games recently. Especially with OG out tonight, the Knicks' defense should give Powell some room to exploit all night.
KAT saw a big jump in shot volume in their last game against Miami a few days ago. He scored 39 points on 26 field goal attempts. A major reason was the absence of Brunson from the lineup, and that’s not changing tonight either. However, I don’t see KAT repeating that performance tonight. I expect the Heat to adjust by playing KAT further outside, especially since he hit 6 threes in their last game. If they can avoid those possessions and force KAT to battle against Ware down low, he’ll struggle scoring. Averaging only 21 points per game this season, big games haven’t been common for KAT this year.
Hart is one of the sneakiest passers you may not think about. With Brunson out too, he should see plenty of time with the ball. Looking at their last game at Miami, Hart closed the game out with 10 assists. While that’s a high for him this year, he is averaging 4.4 assists a game while sharing the floor with Brunson. As long as he doesn’t run into foul trouble tonight, he’ll have plenty of offense running through him, which should help him exceed his average.
Ware is basically picking up where he left off last year. He’s been scoring efficiently, rebounding, and sealing off the paint. Even though he struggled in his last game against Miami, his defense still looks promising. Averaging 1.2 blocks a game, he’s had multiple games with 2+ blocks, including 3 of his 5 games in November. While having Bam sidelined has hurt Ware a bit, I think he’s due for a bounce-back game tonight against the Knicks again.