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Nikola Durisic Questionable
Trae Young Out
Taylor Hendricks Out
Kyle Anderson Out
Georges Niang Out
Walker Kessler Out
This is going to be a weird matchup. Despite the different directions of these teams, they are actually fairly similar in talent. While the Jazz are likely heading into another year of tanking, the Hawks sense weakness in the East and are ready to capitalize on it.
Atlanta started off a bit rocky this season. They’ve struggled to find much momentum early on, but lately have brought the record back up to 7-5. While not leading the East, that places them in a more competitive range. Still, this team has more to show. With Trae Young out for the foreseeable future, this group has been retooling on the fly. We’ve seen a variety of players step up, including Krejci, Gueye, Risacher, and Okongwu. And that’s not even counting the core pieces like Johnson, Daniels, and Porzingis. This group does have the potential to come together in a big way. Their biggest challenge will be their offense. There aren’t any glaring holes. The team is shooting reasonably well from the field and three-point range, but they lack a true number one option. Even with Trae, it wasn’t necessarily him either. This team is very versatile. Everyone seems to get some offensive opportunities, but that can create confusion as well. If everyone is waiting for the next man to step up, it can be hard to know when someone needs to take charge. That’s where some of these issues originate. Overall, the team will need someone to step into the offensive leadership role at some point. This team still remains dangerous, though, and should be a tough opponent for Utah.
The Jazz, on the other hand, are in a different position in the West. In such a competitive conference, they just don’t have the top-end talent to contend. Even with Markkanen playing excellently, the team is so young that it’s hard to see it come together. That being said, this team can still give anyone trouble. With so much size from Bailey, Markkanen, and now Nurkic in the starting lineup, the frontcourt is tough. The backcourt, on the other hand, is a work in progress. George has made a huge leap this year but still lacks efficiency on offense. Collier has impressed so far in his short season, moving the ball well and racking up assists. This group can break you down with size and tenacity on the boards. But it’s a little too early for them; give them a couple of years, and this team could really become something.
Regarding the matchup, the Hawks might face some challenges with Utah's size. Ultimately, the Hawks appear to have more talent and a stronger defense. Their long, rangy wings will likely cause Utah problems, especially given Utah's three-point struggles this season. If the Hawks can shut down the paint and force the ball out, I don’t see Utah’s offense succeeding. That said, it should be a close game, but I have a gut feeling to back Atlanta tonight. Even on the road, I believe they’ll have the energy to win. That’s why I’m betting on the Hawks moneyline, the over on the 232.5 points, and the Atlanta spread at -2.5.
Money line: ATL (-142) / UTA (+120)
Total Points: 232.5
Spread: -2.5 ATL (-105) / +2.5 UTA (-115)
We’ve seen Markkanen return to his All-Star form this season. Averaging 28 points per game with solid shooting percentages, he’s been a key player for the Jazz. However, looking at his game log, we don’t see many top defensive opponents so far. Against teams with strong wing defenders, Markkanen has struggled. With several games below his usual performance against Minnesota twice, Detroit, and Boston, the Atlanta defense could pose a real challenge for him.
With Atlanta heating up, so has Risacher. He’s been gradually increasing his offensive production, and despite some poor shooting, he’s been consistently around this line. Averaging 15 points in November so far, he’s been electrifying inside the arc, converting nearly 50% from the field. Risacher has also seen a noticeable boost in minutes and shot attempts since Trae Young went down. With him playing a significant role in this offense and the Jazz front court weakened with Kessler gone, Risacher could do some damage tonight.
George has been on fire this season. Taking the starting role when Collier missed the beginning of the season, he has only thrived in that position. Currently, he’s averaging 21 points and 7 assists per game. However, his assist numbers have been decreasing since Collier returned. With George getting less ball time, his assists have dropped from double digits to around 6 per game. Now, as Collier increases his minutes each game and Atlanta maintains solid perimeter defense, George is likely to have difficulty moving the ball.
Daniels has made steady progress as a rebounder. Averaging just under 6 per game so far, tonight could be his chance to improve further. Since much of Utah’s offense comes from the backcourt, Daniels will likely have more opportunity to grab rebounds while on weaker defensive assignments. Also, since Utah is one of the worst shooting teams in the league, expect many scrappy rebounds for Daniels tonight.