Dorian Finney-Smith Out
Steven Adams Questionable
Fred VanVleet Out
Kelly Olynyk Questionable
Jeremy Sochan Questionable
Luke Kornet Out
De’Aaron Fox Out
Dylan Harper Out
The Rockets make their in-state trip to San Antonio to face the Spurs. With both teams starting the year at a solid 5-2 record, things are looking promising. However, with one team aiming for a title and the other just assembling its pieces, this should be an exciting matchup.
The Rockets have been on fire. After losing their first two games, they’re on a five-game win streak. That’s largely thanks to Kevin Durant, who continues to be a scoring nightmare. He has completely opened up the Houston offense for the rest of the team to thrive. One standout is Amen Thompson. He has been terrific this year, scoring at a high level and playing some of the best defense in the league; he’s been a pest all season. Pairing him next to Sengun gives Houston a reckless amount of interior scoring that no one has been able to figure out yet. However, even with the offense looking better, this is still a defensive team through and through. Their backbone is made of long, rangy wings that can switch 1 through 5. It’s been devastating for teams as they slash through even some of the strongest offenses. All in all, this team looks like they’re on a mission this year.
For San Antonio, this start is even better than they could have expected. With a wide range of players out with injuries, they’re still performing well. They hit a couple bumps against the Lakers and Suns recently, but this team remains dangerous. Whenever Wembanyama steps on the court, you can expect fireworks. He’s been incredible on both ends as he leads this team. However, this isn’t even the team at full strength. We’ve yet to see De’Aaron Fox play alongside Wemby this year, and now with Harper out, the Spurs are short on guards. Castle has managed to pick up some of the slack, but the team needs more from Vassell and Johnson. Still, you can’t overlook this team at any point.
This matchup will be challenging for San Antonio. They’ve faced some issues when Wemby is guarded by wings. Even with his elite size, sending a smaller defender who can harass him farther out has been effective. The Lakers used Hachimura and the Suns used Dunn, which gave Wemby his two worst games this year. However, the Rockets have loads of wings they can toss at Wemby. Thompson, Smith Jr., or Eason can all give him issues. Even if he manages to fight his way into the paint, Steven Adams will contest the rim. Houston is perhaps the best-equipped team in the league to defend against Wemby. Given San Antonio's recent struggles with three-point shooting, I don’t think they have enough offense to keep pace with Houston. That’s why I’m betting on the Rockets moneyline, the under on the 223.5 points total, and Houston covering the spread at -4.5.
Money line: HOU (-166) / SAS (+140)
Total Points: 223.5
Spread: -4.5 HOU (-105) / +4.5 SAS (+140)
Thompson has taken a big step early this year in scoring. He’s averaging 18 points per game, with some big games against Memphis and Dallas recently. However, he does almost all of his work inside the arc. He is shooting just 17% from three, and 67% from the free throw line. Considering how close he has to play to score, having Wemby in the paint is intimidating. His ability to shut down interior scoring doesn’t give me much hope that Thompson will be able to find his spot. The under looks much more appealing tonight.
Sengun is always a strong candidate to reach 10+ rebounds. He’s averaging just under 10 at 9.9 this year. With Adams questionable tonight, Sengun might get even more playing time. If that’s the case and he’s on the court around 35 minutes, it should be almost automatic for him to grab 10 boards. Even if Adams is playing, Sengun should be within reach anyway.
It’s been a tough start for Vassell. Historically, he’s been one of the top scorers on this roster, but his shot hasn’t been falling this year. Shooting just 33% from three so far, he’s not hitting as often as he used to. However, he’s still taking plenty of shots. He’s averaging 8 threes a game and nearly 14 shots from the field overall. Considering the tough defense Houston has been playing, Vassell should get plenty of kickouts to the arc. If he can improve his shooting even slightly tonight, 16 points should be within reach.
If there's ever a fun bet to make, it’s this one. Wemby is one of the most disruptive defenders we’ve seen in a while. He’s averaging 5.4 combined steals and blocks per game so far. He already had one game with 9 blocks. Considering how dependent the Rockets are on scoring in the paint, they should be within Wemby’s reach all night.