Shaedon Sharpe Probable
Blake Welsey Out
Matisse Thybulle Out
Scoot Henderson Out
Damian Lillard Out
Deandre Ayton Questionable
Aduo Thiero Out
Gabe Vincent Out
Maxi Kleber Out
LeBron James Out
There is no rest for the wicked, as the Lakers head to Portland after beating the Heat last night. In their last matchup, Portland stole a win in LA against a Luka-less Lakers team. However, Luka is back for this one, which completely changes the outlook.
In their first game against LA, Portland kept the defensive intensity high. They pressured the ball almost the entire length of the court, making Reaves fight through doubles and jump passing lanes. Overall, the Blazers suffocated the Lakers' only big offensive threat until he couldn’t hold up anymore. However, that strategy will be more challenging with Luka out as well. The bigger issue for Portland is their offense, though. They’ve struggled to score consistently all year. It’s been a joint effort between Grant and Avdija to generate enough points to keep the team competitive. Holiday has had some moments too, but what they really need is Sharpe. He’s been the primary scoring option this year, but his shot just isn’t falling. With fewer shooters on the floor and the defense dropping back, the paint has become a crowded area. Most of Portland’s games have come down to how well they can hit from the outside. We’ll see if it’s enough to withstand the offensive punch the Lakers are bringing tonight.
In many ways, the Lakers are the complete opposite of the Blazers. Portland is a mishmash of role players without stars, focusing on defense. Meanwhile, the Lakers have two stars who focus on offense. The offense runs smoothly, but their defense struggles; teams are scoring nearly 120 points per game against them. Part of that may be because the team is still settling in, but it also seems like a roster issue. They just don’t have any two-way players; they often trade off defense for offense or vice versa. Since offense is the easier leverage, they tend to try to outscore opponents. It’s been effective—they’re 5-2 this season—but it doesn’t seem sustainable.
In terms of the matchup, it’s going to be tricky for the Lakers. Portland has the defenders and athletes to wear down LA. They’re going to throw guys at Luka and Reaves all game, forcing them to battle the length of the court. Normally, those two could get through it, but I’m worried about fatigue tonight. That’s why I’m going with the Blazers’ moneyline, the under on the 236.5 spread, and the Portland spread at -2.5.
Money line: LAL (+124) / POR (-148)
Total Points: 236.5
Spread: +2.5 LAL (-105) / -2.5 POR (-115)
Luka continues to shine this season alongside Reaves. The duo has been dominating the competition effortlessly. Offensively, there's not much more you could ask from Luka. His passing remains one of his top strengths, averaging 8 assists a game. He should be able to move the ball well again tonight against Portland. With a slightly easier defensive matchup for Luka, he’s probably not going to want to fight through Portland’s defense on the second night of a back-to-back. The over at 8.5 looks like a solid bet for this game.
With Portland’s offense lacking a true number one scoring option, Avdija has filled the void. When the ball hits his hands, he makes a move—creating fast breaks or drawing contact to get to the line. He’s been relentless with his approach and touch around the rim. With the Lakers’ defense missing a key presence, Avdija should be able to use his size and speed to beat them downhill. Averaging 22 points a game already, he’s probably going to be around this total again tonight.
Clingan has improved his game recently, grabbing 15 boards in 24 minutes against Denver on Friday. He’s been a key post defender that provides Portland’s defense with strength. Going against LA tonight should give him plenty of space to operate. With Ayton or Hayes at the five for LA, Clingan likely won’t need to guard players in the post too often tonight, giving him more freedom to help on defense and grab additional boards.
LaRavia is finally giving the Lakers that off-the-bench burst they expected. He had a great game yesterday against the Heat, finishing with 25 points and raising his average to 12 points per game. With Portland missing some key players from their bench tonight, it should create more opportunities for LaRavia to score. Especially on the second game of a back-to-back, we might see the Lakers rely on their bench a bit more than usual tonight.