Luke Kornet Out
Lundy Waters Out
Kelly Olynyk Out
De’Aaron Fox Out
Jeremy Sochan Out
Nikola Jovic Probable
Norma Powell Out
Kasparas Jakucionis Out
Terry Rozier Out
Tyler Herro Out
The Heat are on their way to Texas to face the scorching Spurs. With Wembanyama already looking like an MVP candidate this young season, the Heat have their work cut out for them. It hasn’t been an easy start to their season for the Heat either. They’re without Powell and Herro, severely limiting the team’s shooting ability. They’ve managed to win 3 of their first 4 games, but the Spurs might be the most challenging team they’ve faced so far.
The Heat have relied heavily on the post. Bam, Jaquez, and Wiggins have done most of their work down low. Though Bam has had some success spreading the floor, the other two need to be at the rim. Jaquez is shooting nearly 70% from the field but only 25% from three. The desperation in their shooting is palpable at this point, which is not what you want when facing the Spurs.
The Spurs have been dominating teams. Wemby is shutting down opponents on both ends, establishing himself as the best defender in the league. His offense has improved too, as he’s shooting from closer to the rim. He’s no longer afraid to use his shoulder and drive inside, which is intimidating. Few teams can do much against him except try to keep the ball out of his hands. Still, with how the young guards have performed, that might not even help. This team is packed with young, explosive athletes who are a nightmare to defend. Their ability to score inside the arc might be unmatched this year.
This matchup is going to be tough. The Heat are just down too many critical players. Even if they had Herro or Powell, it would be a tough ask to beat the Spurs. But without them, I don’t see it. Considering how generous these lines are, it feels like a no-brainer to take the Spurs here. The spread for this game sitting at 6.5 seems a few points low, at least considering the state of these teams. So that’s why I’m going with the San Antonio moneyline, the over on the 228.5 points total, and the Spurs spread at -6.5.
Money line: MIA (+185) / SAS (-225)
Total Points: 228.5
Spread: +6.5 MIA (-115) / -6.5 SAS (-105)
Wemby has been one of the most elite defenders we’ve seen. He’s been dominant around the rim, averaging nearly 5 blocks per game. He almost had 10 blocks against the Pelicans last week. He’s a force, and with the Heat missing so many shooters, he’s going to dominate again inside, especially with most of the Miami offense coming from Jaquez Jr. and Adebayo around the rim.
Jaquez has stepped up this season after a sophomore slump last year. He’s been effective around the rim on offense, but we’ve also seen his rebounding numbers improve. He’s averaging 6.3 rebounds per game in four games. With his minutes remaining fairly steady at around 30, he should have plenty of opportunities to grab some boards.
For a rookie, Harper has come in much more confident than expected. With Fox still out, he’s seen some early playing time too. He’s averaging nearly 15 points per game on decent shooting so far. With little change in the rotation tonight, Harper should get a good amount of time on the floor again. Especially with Wemby drawing a lot of attention, Harper should be able to find some lanes and convert against the banged-up Heat team.
Mitchell has really improved as a playmaker this season. He’s averaging 8.3 assists per game so far, with a standout season opener against Orlando where he scored 12. However, when he faces teams with strong defenses like New York or Memphis, he’s fallen a little short. Since there won’t be any easy assists in the post tonight with Wemby down there, Mitchell will need to find shooters. But with Herro and Powell out, that might be tough. I don’t think the passing lanes will be open for Mitchell tonight at all.