Golden State Warriors at the Milwaukee Bucks, Oct 30: Breakdown, Predictions, and Prop Bets
Bucks Injuries:
Giannis Antetokounmpo Probable
Kevin Porter Jr Out
Warriors Injuries:
Moses Moody Questionable
Alex Toohey Out
De’Anthony Melton Out
Matchup Breakdown
The Warriors are on the road in Milwaukee facing off against Giannis in an early season matchup. With both teams starting strong, this promises to be a close game. The Warriors have looked good coming out of recent games. With only one loss in their first five, things are looking promising in Golden State. Curry has been exceptional, and even Kuminga has improved his game. Their roster looks dangerous, featuring scorers and high IQ players throughout. However, that doesn’t mean they’re unbeatable. As one of the oldest and smallest rosters in the league, they have their limitations. They struggled against Portland on the road, facing a tough defense. It was a back-to-back road game, so take that with a grain of salt, but it did reveal their first flaw of the season. With Giannis on the other side tonight, he’s exactly the type of player they’re ill-equipped to handle.
Giannis has been dominant so far this year. He’s leading the Bucks in every major stat. He’s on a war path to keep the Bucks afloat after a turbulent offseason. However, it doesn’t feel like Giannis is completely alone on this team anymore. The emergence of Ryan Rollins has proven to be a key piece in their success. Taking over the starting PG spot, he’s been a much-needed secondary scorer, providing some spacing to keep the lanes open for Giannis. The same can’t be said for Myles Turner, though. He’s struggling to find his fit on this team, with his perimeter shooting falling flat—he’s been the odd man out. As the X-factor on both offense and defense, they’ll need him to step up to elevate this team to the next level. Overall, this team is already punching above its weight. On paper, this roster isn’t that compelling beyond Giannis. And on the court, it’s pretty much exactly what you’d expect—Giannis playing MVP-level basketball, while the rest of the team scrapes by just enough to get the wins. It’s going to be an interesting season in Milwaukee, to say the least.
This matchup is going to be interesting. The Warriors clearly have the more talented team. They have better shooting, better team defense, and more depth. However, Giannis is just too good. The Warriors don’t have the size it takes to slow him down. They’re likely going to chuck a ton of forwards at him to slap at the ball, but in Milwaukee, he’ll probably just end up at the line. If that’s the case, the Warriors may struggle to keep up. The Bucks will be able to close off the post and force the Warriors outside. I just don’t think I can bet against Giannis when he’s playing at this level, especially on his home court. As great as Golden State has been, Giannis is too much. That’s why I’m going with the Bucks moneyline, the over on the 231.5 points total, and the Milwaukee spread at +3.5.
Betting Lines (DraftKings)
Money line: GSW (-155) / MIL (+130)
Total Points: 231.5
Spread: -3.5 GSW (-102) / +3.5 MIL (-118)
Moneyline Prediction: Bucks Win
Total Points Prediction: Over 231.5
Spread Prediction: Milwaukee +3.5
Top Prop Bets
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 30.5 Points (-106)
Giannis is the only thing keeping this team moving. He’s giving every game 100%, and it’s paying off. He’s averaging 36 points per game. He’s hit the over in every game so far this year, and tonight should be no different. With the Warriors lacking size to pack the paint against Giannis, he should be able to do some damage. Butler and Green have good hands, but that shouldn’t be enough to stop Giannis from dominating inside all night.
Ryan Rollins Over 11.5 Points (-118)
Ryan Rollins has been the home run hit the Bucks needed at guard. With Kevin Porter Jr. out earlier this year, Rollins has stepped up as the second-highest scorer on the team. He’s averaging 15 points a game so far, with decent shooting splits. The Warriors will be one of the tougher defenses he’s faced as a starter, but with the line at 11.5, there is some wiggle room on the over tonight.
Jimmy Butler Over 5.5 Rebounds (+117)
Butler’s rebounding hasn’t been anything spectacular. You can tell they’re focused on team rebounds rather than having someone camp out in the paint all night. However, this is a game that Butler will get motivated for. Going against Giannis, Butler usually steps up, which will probably lead to a bit more effort on the defensive rebounds. He’s also grabbed 5 rebounds in four of their five games so far, putting him right on the edge of this line. Still, the over looks tempting with some plus odds attached.
Stephen Curry Over 5.5 Assists (+104)
We’re seeing Curry start to settle down a bit this year. After a hot start, his shooting numbers are evening out, and the ball is moving more. He’s averaging only 5 assists per game, but against the Clippers on Tuesday, he had 8. It looks like Curry is beginning to feel more comfortable with this team. With his shot totals dropping from over 20 to the mid-teens, the offensive load is shifting, which will help boost his assist numbers.