Moritz Wagner Out
Ausar Thompson Questionable
Caris LeVert Questionable
Marcus Sasser Questionable
Jaden Ivey Out
With Orlando heading to Detroit, these teams aren’t quite where we expected them to be. The Magic have struggled early on. Their offense continues to hinder them, as shooting remains elusive. Currently sitting at 1-3 for the season, they just can’t score. The perimeter shooting remains the main issue, but overall efficiency is trending in the wrong direction. Even Paolo Banchero is facing some criticism as his scoring continues to hold the team back. It doesn’t help that the guy you brought in to spread the floor, Bane, is shooting 27% from three. For one of the most hyped up teams, this is not the start you wanted to see. However, they’ll have a shot against the Pistons who have also stumbled early this season.
Detroit's problems are actually quite similar to Orlando's. A lack of efficient shooters has limited the offense. After losing Malik Beasley in free agency last year, perimeter scoring just can’t draw defenses out. Because of this, Cunningham is now forced to slog through defenses to get to his spot. Without a reliable pass out, he’s left trying to convert low-efficiency shots. With Cade shooting under 40% from the field, the team around him needs to step up. However, with Ivey out with an injury again, Duncan Robinson struggling from deep, and the rest of the lineup limited offensively, there doesn’t seem to be a quick fix.
This is going to be a tough matchup. With both teams struggling offensively, it could turn into an ugly game. I’d say the Magic have a slight edge on paper, but they lack a strong answer for Cunningham. Still, this game will likely come down to the role players. If either team can find a hot hand from beyond the arc, it’s probably over. That makes me lean toward Detroit. They’ve shown a bit more resilience in scoring compared to Orlando. Add that with home-court advantage, and that’s probably the small edge they need to win. That’s why I’m backing the Pistons moneyline, the under on the 228.5 points total, and Detroit at +1.5.
Money line: ORL (-130) / DET (+110)
Total Points: 228.5
Spread: -1.5 ORL (-118) / +1.5 DET (-102)
Things haven’t gone ideally for Cunningham so far this season. After a strong season last year, early injuries on the roster have made it difficult. The loss of Malik Beasley seems to be more significant than expected, and with Ivey out, Cade is isolated. This team just doesn’t have the personnel to spread the floor for Cade to operate. Combine that with Cade’s three-point shots not falling, and there’s a reason he’s consistently hitting the unders this year. Facing a strong Orlando defense, I don’t see him thriving offensively tonight.
Duren has been an excellent rebounder for this team. He’s probably the best at rebounding on the squad, but this team is great at team rebounding overall. But against the Magic, I Duren will likely be too preoccupied. He'll likely focus on protecting the paint since the Magic haven’t been able to score from long range this year. The shooting continues to be an issue, even with Desmond Bane on the team, which will probably draw Duren into defensive sets and keep him out of rebounding positions. The under looks like a solid play tonight.
Paolo continues to struggle with playing efficient basketball. His shot hasn’t been falling, and even when it does, he isn’t finding the open man. With Suggs and Bane added to the lineup this year, it seemed like he’d have more passing options. However, he hasn’t been able to find them. With Carter Jr. clogging the lane, Bane’s three not falling, and Suggs on a minute restriction, the offense just isn’t clicking. Banchero has mainly been trying to get it done himself, which isn’t effective. I don’t see this turning around against Detroit’s long and tough defensive lineups.
The addition of Bane to the Magic was supposed to open up the entire court, but it hasn’t happened so far. Bane has struggled to convert from three-point range, shooting only 27% beyond the arc. More concerning are his three-point attempt numbers. He’s only averaging 5.5 attempts per game so far. That shot volume just doesn’t give much leeway to hit three. The under is definitely the value play.