Bradley Beal Out
Kobe Sanders Out
Jordan Miller Out
Alex Toohey Out
Al Horford Questionable
De’Anthony Melton Out
This is old-man basketball right here, as the two oldest teams in the league face off. The Warriors come into this game with a 3-1 record, while the Clippers are at 2-1. With some strong early-season success, these teams still look like two of the top in the West. But we’ll see who can hoist the AARP trophy first this year.
The Clippers made significant improvements to their off-season roster by adding Brook Lopez, Chris Paul, John Collins, and Bradley Beal. This gave them the depth they desperately needed last year. Coupled with the fact that their starting core remains mostly the same outside of Norman Powell, this team looks formidable. They also have size throughout the roster. It’s a team built to win in tough, slugfest matches while still having some explosive scoring options. However, the team mainly plays in a methodical, grinding style that minimizes mistakes. Kawhi continues to be the centerpiece of that approach, stabilizing the defense, keeping the offense flowing, and facilitating the overall play. He and Harden keep the team moving at all times and are shaping up to be a real force early this season.
The Warriors aren’t too different. They have Butler playing a similar role to Kawhi and Curry leading the offense. At the top end, the Warriors' veteran talent has actually been better, but the rest of the team hasn’t been as impressive. The Warriors continue to lack substantial size. They did acquire Al Horford, but the 39-year-old has already been in and out of the lineup. Without him, it’s back to small-ball with Green or Butler in the post. It’s been effective, but the size on the Clippers is concerning. The Warriors will need to rely on their scoring ability to push the pace against the Clippers. They have the personnel to do so, but since the Clippers are so steady in pace, it’s going to be a battle.
The matchup will be interesting. We’ve seen the Warriors as a dangerous roster, especially with healthy Curry running the show. He’s been elite from beyond the arc and remains a huge challenge for any defense. However, without others stepping up, it’s been Curry versus the world so far. Kuminga has had moments, some with Butler, but neither feels reliable tonight. With Kawhi probably taking Butler most of the night, this game will mainly hinge on Curry. If he can score like he did against Portland or Denver, they should be fine. If not, the defense and size of the Clippers may overwhelm the rest of the team. That’s why I’m choosing the Clippers moneyline, the over on 225.5 points, and the Clippers at -2.5 spread.
Money line: LAC (-125) / GSW (+105)
Total Points: 225.5
Spread: -2.5 LAC (-102) / +2.5 GSW (-118)
Kuminga continues to work his way into the rotation again this year. He’s been decent so far, averaging 15.7 points per game on solid shooting. He seems to be an important part of this offense. However, against the Clippers, I don’t think he’ll have a great scoring night. They’re full of solid, long, defensively-minded players all over the court. When Kuminga can use his explosive athleticism to get to the rim, it works well, but tonight, he’s likely to struggle. Unless he gets to the line a few times, Kuminga should fall short of this mark.
Zubac is the anchor of this team. He’s the post protector, the screen setter, and the lob threat underneath. He’s only grown into this role more, as he’s already averaging 16 points a game. Now, facing the Warriors, who are likely to start Green at the 5, the 7-footer should have a solid advantage. Green can handle bigger guys well, but with Kawhi and Harden to worry about, I expect Zubac to break loose often and use his size to dominate tonight. The over is looking like a great value.
Even as Harden drifts further into his 30s, his passing remains elite. He’s consistently able to find the right guy and create easy offense. This might be one of the most stacked teams he’s played with, featuring shooters and lob threats all over. With minimal motion, Harden can pick apart defenses. He’s already averaging over 10 assists a game. Especially against the smaller Golden State defense, I expect Harden to get creative with the playmaking tonight.
For just about any other player in the league, this line would be foolish, but Curry remains the exception. He’s been hot this year, already shooting well. Averaging 5.3 made threes per game, he’s taking over 10 attempts from deep each game. With the Golden State offense still trying to find its footing, Curry continues to be the consistent pillar they need. So even with an impressive number like 4.5, the over still offers strong value, especially at plus odds.