Kevin Porter Jr Out
Giannis Antetokounmpo Probable
Collin Murray-Boyles Questionable
Ja’Kobe Walter Out
With both of these teams winning their season openers, the first L is coming tonight. The question is, which side will take it? The Raptors came out with a statement game against one of the most exciting teams in the East, Atlanta. They didn’t just win; they crushed the Hawks in a brutal blowout in Atlanta. The first glimpses of this team look good, but will they hold up against one of the best players in the league?
It’s no secret that the old Bucks are gone. Middleton, Lillard, Holiday, and Lopez are all gone. However, in their departure, the Bucks managed to piece together a scrappy team. Replacing Lopez with Myles Turner, boosting Gary Trent Jr., and finding other role players in the ether. Overall, this team isn’t as talented as it has been, but with healthy, prime Giannis, it’s hard to underrate them. They absolutely dominated the Wizards in their first game. Not exactly elite competition, but still, Giannis showed he’s feeling really good.
For Toronto, this is going to be a great game to see what they’re made of. There have been questions swirling about this backcourt all off-season, primarily about their defense. The combination of Brandon Ingram and Scottie Barnes isn’t a duo known for elite defense. Poeltl is decent, but hardly enough to stop Giannis. After faring well against Jalen Johnson and Porzingis, maybe they were underestimated. However, one part of their game critics were correct about was their shooting. They struggled with it last year, and those woes have carried over. They shot 24% from three in their first game, with the only player hitting consistently being Gradey Dick. The starting lineup went 2/13; it’s just not their game. Their shooting from the floor, though, was great, ending at 57%. It’s going to be key for Toronto to find their way inside the arc. Unfortunately, that’s exactly where the Bucks thrive.
With Giannis and Turner lurking in the paint, it’s going to be tough for the Raptors to find efficient shots at the rim. The Raptors are a solid midrange team, which might be their best option tonight. Overall, the Bucks will need to force the ball outside the arc as much as possible. Every three the Raptors take is a defensive win for Milwaukee. On the other end, it’s going to have to be the Giannis show. Without any other high-efficiency scorer on the roster, they’ll need another 30+ point night from him.
This matchup will come down to damage control for Toronto. If they can keep Giannis from heating up, they should be able to outpace them. However, I have my doubts about their ability to do so. I just don’t trust their frontcourt to slow him down. Add in their lack of perimeter shooting, and it worries me. That’s why I’m going with the Milwaukee moneyline, the over on the 234.5 points total, and the Bucks at +1.5.
Money line: MIL (+100) / TOR (-120)
Total Points: 234.5
Spread: +1.5 MIL (-108) / -1.5 TOR (-112)
Well, after a lights-out game against the Pistons in their season opener, Dick proved to be a real presence off the bench. He was electric in that game, finishing with 21 points. He did most of his work at the line, but with 10 attempts on the night, the numbers look great for him early this year. With the line set at a reasonable 9.5 points, if he can get a similar level of shot volume against Milwaukee, he should be right around this range again tonight.
This matchup for Giannis looks promising. With minimal front court defense from Toronto, he should pose a real challenge for the Raptors. After dropping 37 points in the season opener for the Bucks, Giannis is at full strength, which is a dangerous sign for the league. With no injuries slowing him down, he’s going to be a 30+ point per game threat for the foreseeable future.
The role of playmaker is basically all in Quickley’s hands in this Toronto offense. With 8 assists in their season during the opener against Atlanta, he managed to find his teammates more often than not. This is somewhat of a departure from his usual play, but if this is his main role in Toronto, getting ahead of the line shift for added value seems appealing.
In a surprising last game, Ingram was dominant on the boards. He finished with 9 rebounds against a strong frontcourt. With a similarly challenging backcourt coming to Toronto, this 5.5 line stands out as a good opportunity. While he hasn’t been a major rebounder in his career, Ingram added a good amount of muscle in the offseason, which could help him grab more physical rebounds. Game one might have been a fluke, but this line offers decent value regardless.