Robert Williams Out
Scoot Henderson Out
Damian Lillard Out
Al Horford Questionable
Alex Toohey Questionable
Moses Moody Out
De’Anthony Melton Out
The Warriors and Trail Blazers are back at it. After two preseason games, it already feels like we just saw this matchup. But this is the game that matters. With Golden State winning their first two games and beating Portland both times in preseason, this will be a tough game for Portland.
The Trail Blazers are coming off a tough loss to the Timberwolves in their season opener. That game was close down the stretch, but ultimately, one team had Anthony Edwards who clutched the game. For Portland, it was still a win. They managed to stay competitive with a very strong team, and their defense looked legitimately scary. This team is built to win through defense. Their starting lineup of Holiday, Sharpe, Camara, Avdija, and Clingan is stout. They have high IQ players all over who can make it challenging for the opposing team. However, they’re not very productive on the offensive side of the ball. Sharpe struggled to lead Portland’s offense, and eventually, Avdija stepped up to carry most of the burden. Their half-court offense is really the problem. In transition, they can take on almost anyone, but when the game slows down, their efficiency drops. They’re going to need to see more from Sharpe tonight or have someone step up offensively to challenge the Warriors.
For the Warriors, they’re looking incredible as they continue to play at light speed. This team can move despite their age, and the half-court offense is devastating. With the option of either Curry or Butler to initiate the offense, they have numerous ways to hurt the defense. Their high-speed, fluid offense is one of the best in the league, and when they need to slow it down, Butler can get to the line at will. The defense has been effective as well. Green of course leads on that side of the court, but Butler has been disruptive too. Despite being a small team, their post defense remains surprisingly strong. The only weakness this team has is size. They’re playing a small lineup most of the game, with Green at the five at times. This isn’t anything new for them, but still, against a tall team like Portland, it might affect the rotation a bit.
This matchup will really come down to how well the Warriors recover. They just played a tough game against Denver in Golden State last night. In a shootout that went into OT, all of the starters played significant minutes. Since most of the lineup is made up of 30+ year olds, recovery might be a bit more challenging. With Portland holding their own against them in the preseason and considering the level of defense, they could hang with them again tonight. As long as Portland can find some offense on their roster, I think they’ll have a good shot at winning tonight. That’s why I’m going with the Portland moneyline, the over on the 227.5 points total, and the +1.5 spread for the Trail Blazers.
Money line: GSW (-125) / POR (+105)
Total Points: 227.5
Spread: -1.5 GSW (-112) / +1.5 POR (-108)
Curry has been on fire to start the season. After picking up a big win to open the season against the Lakers, they went on to take down Denver in OT last night. The 37-year-old still has it, scoring 42 last night. With the line set at 24.5, this feels like a trap to take the over, but if it is, I’m falling for it. Even against Portland’s strong defense, we’ve seen Curry thrive. He torched them in two preseason games, and with the hot hand currently, he should be able to do some damage tonight.
Butler has been thriving this year as well. He’s been an essential part of the Warriors' offense, creating space outside for Curry. What Butler has been especially good at so far this season is getting to the line. He’s a master at drawing contact or making defenders jump. Especially against a young team like Portland, I expect to see Butler at the line quite a bit tonight. If he can get around 7 free throw attempts, he’ll be in a strong position to go over this line.
Clingan has taken a step forward since last year. He’s more aware of his surroundings and looks much more comfortable. One big change from last year is his willingness to fight for offensive boards. At 7’3", he’ll have a significant advantage tonight against a generally smaller Warriors team. He scored 15 points against them in one of the preseason games in just 20 minutes. If he can carve out some space down low, snag a few lobs, and get some putbacks, he should be on track to hit the over tonight!
Holiday has been an excellent stabilizing presence for the Trail Blazers. Keeping the defense together, and starting the half-court offense. He’s been blending well with this group, and with a host of scoring options around him, he’s been finding them. He had seven assists in their first game against Minnesota, while averaging about 6.5 during the preseason playing limited minutes. Against a smaller Golden State team, Holiday should be able to find guys like Clingan or Camara for some lob opportunities.